{"id":1395,"date":"2023-06-06T12:59:14","date_gmt":"2023-06-06T12:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=1395"},"modified":"2023-06-28T21:56:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T21:56:42","slug":"is-the-future-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/sv\/2023\/06\/is-the-future-back\/","title":{"rendered":"\"Vi ville ha flygande bilar, ist\u00e4llet fick vi 140 tecken\" - \u00e4r framtiden tillbaka?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I sin inflytelserika ess\u00e4 \"What Happened to the Future?\" beklagade Peter Thiel att samh\u00e4llet hade g\u00e5tt ifr\u00e5n en framtidsvision fylld av \"flygande bilar\" och ist\u00e4llet fokuserat p\u00e5 stegvisa framsteg som de \"140 tecknen\" i ett Twitterinl\u00e4gg. Har AI f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrat detta?<\/b><\/p>\n

Thiels kommentarer publicerades 2011 n\u00e4r AI fortfarande var en teknik som l\u00e5g lite i periferin och som fr\u00e4mst anv\u00e4ndes f\u00f6r vetenskapliga \u00e4ndam\u00e5l och forskning.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sedan dess har AI hamnat i rampljuset och m\u00e4nskligheten har b\u00f6rjat dr\u00f6mma om en ny AI-driven framtid, en framtid som pr\u00e4glas av oro och sp\u00e4nning - en framtid av ok\u00e4nda faktorer. <\/span><\/p>\n

AI utmanar Thiels kritik av teknikindustrin och ger ny kraft \u00e5t b\u00e5de utopiska och dystopiska framtidsvisioner.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00e5, \u00e4r framtiden tillbaka? Hur ser den ut nu?<\/p>\n

Tillbaka till 70-talet<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00c5ret var 1969. Det kalla kriget hade n\u00e5tt sin h\u00f6jdpunkt och rymdkappl\u00f6pningen n\u00e4rmade sig en kritisk massa n\u00e4r USA och Ryssland n\u00e4rmade sig m\u00e5nen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Den 20 juli 1969, strax efter 10:51 EST, s\u00e4ndes en av historiens mest ikoniska fraser till 650 miljoner TV-apparater \u00f6ver hela v\u00e4rlden: \"...ett litet steg f\u00f6r en m\u00e4nniska, ett stort steg f\u00f6r m\u00e4nskligheten.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Framtiden hade anl\u00e4nt. 1970-talet innebar ett futuristiskt uppvaknande som ledde till publikationer som Romklubbens <\/span>Gr\u00e4nserna f\u00f6r tillv\u00e4xt <\/span><\/i>och en rad verk av elitforskare, d\u00e4ribland Princeton-fysikern Gerard K. O'Neill och MIT-forskaren Eric Drexler, som har utarbetat planer f\u00f6r allt fr\u00e5n nanoteknik till rymdkolonialism.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Framtidens v\u00e4rld: Framtidens st\u00e4der (1979). Kredit: Retrofuturisten<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

David Valentine, professor i antropologi vid <\/span>University of Minnesota, skrev<\/span><\/a>\"1970-talet var ocks\u00e5 den period d\u00e5 \"framtiden\" - dystopisk eller utopisk, fixerad av prognoser men \u00f6ppen f\u00f6r teknisk manipulation - verkade f\u00e5nga allm\u00e4nhetens, politikernas, beslutsfattarnas och prognosmakarnas fantasi mest fullst\u00e4ndigt.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Framv\u00e4xten av AI<\/span><\/h2>\n

AI:s ursprung g\u00e5r tillbaka till 1950-talet d\u00e5 datavetarna John McCarthy och Marvin Minsky var v\u00e4rdar f\u00f6r <\/span>Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence (DSRPAI) 1956<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Just denna h\u00e4ndelse var startskottet f\u00f6r termen \"artificiell intelligens\". 8 \u00e5r senare, 1964, skapade en MIT-forskare, Joseph Weizenbaum, den f\u00f6rsta chatboten - <\/span>ELIZA<\/span><\/a> - f\u00f6reg\u00e5ngaren till moderna spr\u00e5k-AI som ChatGPT. 1966 gav AI-pionj\u00e4ren Martin Minsky en student i uppgift att ansluta en kamera till en dator och \"f\u00e5 den att beskriva vad den ser\" - den f\u00f6rsta beskrivningen av det vi idag kallar computer vision (CV).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Eliza\"
ELIZA var utformat f\u00f6r att utge sig f\u00f6r att vara en terapeut. Programmet anv\u00e4nde m\u00f6nstermatchning f\u00f6r att omvandla inmatningar till utmatningar. Det var ett av de f\u00f6rsta programmen som kunde klara Turingtestet. Kredit: Wikipedia<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Till en b\u00f6rjan var AI i stort sett f\u00f6rsummat av forskarv\u00e4rlden, med undantag f\u00f6r en liten grupp forskare som trodde p\u00e5 dess potential. \u00c5r 1970, <\/span>Minsky ber\u00e4ttade f\u00f6r Life Magazine<\/span><\/a>\"Om tre till \u00e5tta \u00e5r kommer vi att ha en maskin med samma allm\u00e4nna intelligens som en genomsnittlig m\u00e4nniska.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Som vi nu vet var Minskys tajming helt fel. Investeringarna i AI l\u00e4t v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 sig och tekniken h\u00f6lls tillbaka av brist p\u00e5 datorkraft.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Denna period av stillast\u00e5ende utveckling kallades f\u00f6r \"AI-vintern\". En av McCarthys studenter, Hans Moravec, <\/span>konstaterade att<\/span><\/a> \"Datorer var fortfarande miljontals g\u00e5nger f\u00f6r svaga f\u00f6r att uppvisa intelligens.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Det var en period av teknisk desillusionering - m\u00e4nniskan hade uppt\u00e4ckt s\u00e5 mycket p\u00e5 kort tid och stod nu med ett \u00f6verfl\u00f6d av id\u00e9er men inte tillr\u00e4ckligt med tid eller pengar f\u00f6r att utforska dem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Vi ville ha flygande bilar, ist\u00e4llet fick vi 140 tecken\"<\/span><\/h2>\n

Peter Thiel, medgrundare av PayPal, har ofta diskuterat denna tekniska plat\u00e5, som sammanfattas i hans vitt spridda citat: \"Vi ville ha flygande bilar, ist\u00e4llet fick vi 140 tecken.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Denna dikotomi illustrerar \"framtidens\" d\u00f6d i h\u00e4nderna p\u00e5 den digitala tekniken. Hans huvudargument \u00e4r att riskkapitalet b\u00f6rjade gynna \"inkrementell f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring\" eller till och med \"falsk teknik\", som inte hade n\u00e5got p\u00e5tagligt eller egentligt v\u00e4rde men som gav stora vinster p\u00e5 kort tid. Thiel och hans kollegor skrev: \"Vi tror att skiftet fr\u00e5n att st\u00f6dja omv\u00e4lvande teknologier till mer cyniska, inkrementalistiska investeringar br\u00f6t ner riskkapitalet.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Naturligtvis fanns det n\u00e5gra otroliga uppfinningar p\u00e5 80- och 90-talet, inte minst internet. Men Thiel menar \u00e4nd\u00e5 att tekniken \u00f6vergick fr\u00e5n nya tekniker eller uppfinningar till digitala produkter och tj\u00e4nster.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Alla de b\u00e4sta ingenj\u00f6rerna var f\u00f6r upptagna med att finjustera Facebook- och Google-appar i st\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att uppfinna teknik som flygande bilar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thiel fr\u00e5gade sig: \"Finns det n\u00e5gra riktiga teknologier kvar? Har vi n\u00e5tt v\u00e4gs \u00e4nde, ett slags historiens tekniska slut? N\u00e4r varenda detaljhandlare har flyttat \u00f6ver till Internet, \u00e4r det d\u00e5 allt? \u00c4r den utvecklade v\u00e4rlden verkligen utvecklad, punkt slut?\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Andra hoppade p\u00e5 bandvagnen och upprepade k\u00e4nslan. Till exempel, senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) <\/span>skrev under 2019<\/span><\/a>\"M\u00e4nniskor landade p\u00e5 m\u00e5nen f\u00f6r 50 \u00e5r sedan, en fantastisk prestation av amerikansk kreativitet, mod och inte minst teknik. De tekniska uppt\u00e4ckter som gjordes i rymdkappl\u00f6pningen drev p\u00e5 innovationen i \u00e5rtionden. Men jag undrar, 50 \u00e5r senare, vad teknikindustrin ger Amerika i dag.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Thiel om AI<\/span><\/h2>\n

Thiels ess\u00e4 h\u00e4nvisar direkt till AI: \"Sann allm\u00e4n artificiell intelligens representerar den h\u00f6gsta formen av databehandling ... maskininl\u00e4rning representerar ocks\u00e5 en annan \u00f6vertygande m\u00f6jlighet, med potential att skapa allt fr\u00e5n mer intelligenta spel-AI till Watson. \u00c4ven om vi har datorkraften f\u00f6r att st\u00f6dja m\u00e5nga versioner av AI, \u00e4r omr\u00e5det fortfarande relativt d\u00e5ligt finansierat.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Under 2011, n\u00e4r kommentarerna publicerades, uppgick AI-investeringarna till cirka $12nb, <\/span>enligt Statista<\/span><\/a>. \u00c5r 2021 uppgick den till n\u00e4stan $100 miljarder euro, och vissa <\/span>analytiker tror att marknaden kommer att v\u00e4xa tjugofalt fram till 2030<\/span><\/a>och n\u00e5r $2tn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Som Thiel konstaterar finns datorkraften d\u00e4r, och nu finns ocks\u00e5 pengarna d\u00e4r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Visar AI att Thiel har fel n\u00e4r han s\u00e4ger: \"Finns det n\u00e5gra riktiga teknologier kvar? Har vi n\u00e5tt v\u00e4gs \u00e4nde, ett slags historiens teknologiska slut?\"<\/span><\/p>\n

...\u00c4r framtiden tillbaka?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Vi \u00e4r inne i en ny period av teknisk innovation - vi vet helt enkelt inte i vilken utstr\u00e4ckning AI kommer att f\u00f6r\u00e4ndra v\u00e5r v\u00e4rld.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI \u00e4r unikt p\u00e5 s\u00e5 s\u00e4tt att det g\u00e5r p\u00e5 tv\u00e4rs mellan den digitala teknik som Thiel kritiserar och de nya uppfinningar som han uppmuntrar. Fr\u00e5n exoskelett som underl\u00e4tta g\u00e5ng hos f\u00f6rlamade individer<\/a> till <\/span>robotar som skapar och st\u00e4ller ut sin egen konst<\/span><\/a>AI \u00e4r en digital teknik som kan implanteras i praktiskt taget vad som helst.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Ai-Da\"
Ai-Da<\/a> \u00e4r en android som anv\u00e4nder AI f\u00f6r att skapa sin egen konst, som har st\u00e4llts ut i form av b\u00e5de 2D-m\u00e5lningar och teckningar samt 3D-skulpturer. Kredit: Wikimedia Commons<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

F\u00f6rutom AI:s otroligt l\u00e5ngtg\u00e5ende talanger har den en viss allest\u00e4desn\u00e4rvaro som skiljer den fr\u00e5n andra tekniker. AI finns i webbl\u00e4sare, i telefoner, i robotar och i fordon. Och den blir allt intelligentare f\u00f6r varje dag som g\u00e5r, och vissa h\u00e4vdar att \"superintelligent\" AI, eller artificiell allm\u00e4n intelligens (AGI)<\/a>som \u00f6verstiger m\u00e4nniskans kognitiva f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga, \u00e4r bara n\u00e5gra \u00e5r bort.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Detta v\u00e4cker en viktig fr\u00e5ga. Just nu \u00e4r det m\u00e4nniskan som best\u00e4mmer vilken teknik som ska utvecklas med AI, men vad h\u00e4nder om AI blir s\u00e5 intelligent eller autonom att den trotsar oss? Vad h\u00e4nder om den l\u00e4r sig att ta bort sig sj\u00e4lv fr\u00e5n teknik, anpassa sig till olika f\u00f6rh\u00e5llanden eller till och med replikera sig sj\u00e4lv?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Under de senaste m\u00e5naderna har AI-ledare, teknologer, offentliga personer och politiker uttalat sig om AI, och det \u00e4r rimligt att s\u00e4ga att dystopiska ber\u00e4ttelser orsakar st\u00f6rst uppst\u00e5ndelse.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bland kritikerna m\u00e4rks tv\u00e5 av AI:s \"gudf\u00e4der\", Yoshua Bengio och Geoffrey Hinton, som gick ut med skarpa varningar om AI-risker som vapeninnehav och f\u00f6rlorad kontroll. Den andra, Yann LeCun, anser att de \u00e4r kraftigt \u00f6verdrivna.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

F\u00f6r att intensifiera debatten har <\/span>Centrum f\u00f6r AI-s\u00e4kerhet<\/span><\/a> publicerade nyligen en <\/span>uttalande om AI-risk<\/span><\/a>, undertecknad av 350 teknikledare, inklusive VD:arna f\u00f6r Google DeepMind, OpenAI och Anthropic, liksom Bill Gates, m\u00e5nga akademiker och uppskattade forskare, politiker och offentliga personer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fox, CNN, CBS, BBC och andra stora nyhetskanaler har lyft fram AI i den offentliga debatten och satt fart p\u00e5 v\u00e5ra f\u00f6rest\u00e4llningar om ett futuristiskt scenario d\u00e4r maskinerna tar \u00f6ver.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Denna f\u00f6rest\u00e4llda v\u00e4rld lever faktiskt redan inom oss i form av I, Robot, Matrix, A.I. Artificial Intelligence, 2001: A Space Odyssey, Metropolis, Matrix, Terminator, Ex Machina, WALL-E och andra futuristiska AI-influerade filmer som har en sak gemensamt: det slutar inte bra f\u00f6r m\u00e4nskligheten.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI:s f\u00f6r- och nackdelar balanserar p\u00e5 en knivsegg<\/span><\/h2>\n

Vi h\u00f6r mycket om riskerna med AI, kanske f\u00f6r att det \u00e4r de mest sensationella nyheterna.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI:s enorma potential m\u00e5ste utnyttjas och fokuseras p\u00e5 viktiga till\u00e4mpningar, fr\u00e5n att bromsa klimatf\u00f6r\u00e4ndringarna till f\u00f6rebyggande av sjukdomar och medicinsk rehabilitering, optimering av jordbruket och transporter.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Det finns fantastiska exempel p\u00e5 hur dessa tekniker hj\u00e4lper m\u00e4nniskor just nu, fr\u00e5n<\/span>\u00a0gr\u00e4srotsprojekt i Afrika med fokus p\u00e5 att utrota jordbrukssjukdomar och tillhandah\u00e5lla billiga MR-unders\u00f6kningar<\/a> och uppt\u00e4cka nya l\u00e4kemedel som bek\u00e4mpa antibiotikaresistenta bakterier<\/a>. AI kan skapa framtider f\u00f6r m\u00e4nniskor d\u00e4r de inte fanns tidigare.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI \u00e4r fortfarande ett embryo - vi m\u00e5ste se till att det v\u00e4xer till n\u00e5got som skapar snarare \u00e4n f\u00f6rst\u00f6r. Medan vi fortfarande har tid p\u00e5 oss m\u00e5ste m\u00e4nskligheten styra AI s\u00e5 att det gynnar m\u00e4nskligheten.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vi kanske lever i framtiden igen, och den ligger i v\u00e5ra h\u00e4nder - \u00e5tminstone f\u00f6r tillf\u00e4llet. <\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I sin inflytelserika ess\u00e4 \"What Happened to the Future?\" beklagade Peter Thiel att samh\u00e4llet hade g\u00e5tt ifr\u00e5n en framtidsvision fylld av \"flygande bilar\" och ist\u00e4llet fokuserat p\u00e5 stegvisa framsteg som de \"140 tecknen\" i ett Twitterinl\u00e4gg. Har AI f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrat detta? Thiels kommentarer publicerades 2011 n\u00e4r AI fortfarande var en teknik som l\u00e5g lite i periferin och som fr\u00e4mst anv\u00e4ndes i vetenskapliga syften och f\u00f6r forskning. Sedan dess har AI hamnat i rampljuset och m\u00e4nskligheten har b\u00f6rjat dr\u00f6mma om en ny AI-driven framtid, en framtid som pr\u00e4glas av oro och sp\u00e4nning - en framtid av ok\u00e4nda faktorer. AI utmanar Thiels kritik av<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1501,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[87],"tags":[119,124,105,117,93],"class_list":["post-1395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinions","tag-big-tech","tag-futurism","tag-machine-learning","tag-mit","tag-openai"],"yoast_head":"\n"We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters\u201d \u2013 is the future back? | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Concepts of the future have fluctuated hugely over time, but how does AI change that? 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