{"id":12647,"date":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=12647"},"modified":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","slug":"gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/sv\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"GPT-4 \u00f6vertr\u00e4ffar finansanalytiker n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller att f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5 resultat"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kan en generaliserad AI-modell som GPT-4 g\u00f6ra b\u00e4ttre finansiella f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser \u00e4n m\u00e4nskliga expertanalytiker? Forskare fr\u00e5n University of Chicago unders\u00f6kte denna fr\u00e5ga och kom fram till \u00f6verraskande resultat.<\/strong><\/p>\n

R\u00e4dslan f\u00f6r att AI ska ers\u00e4tta jobb har fr\u00e4mst handlat om mindre kvalificerade arbetsuppgifter, men kan experter som investerings- och finansanalytiker ocks\u00e5 beh\u00f6va ompr\u00f6va sina karri\u00e4rer?<\/p>\n

Tidningen<\/a> som forskarna publicerade visar att GPT-4 \u00e4r betydligt b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n m\u00e4nskliga experter p\u00e5 att analysera ett f\u00f6retags finansiella data och f\u00f6rutse dess framtida resultat.<\/p>\n

Deras experiment gick ut p\u00e5 att skicka en balans- och resultatr\u00e4kning i standardiserad form till GPT-4 Turbo och be modellen att analysera dem.<\/p>\n

Modellen fick sedan fr\u00e5gan om bolagets ekonomiska utveckling var h\u00e5llbar och om vinsten skulle \u00f6ka eller minska under den kommande perioden.<\/p>\n

Med hj\u00e4lp av CoT-meddelanden (Chain-of-Thought) coachade de modellen att efterlikna en finansanalytiker i sitt s\u00e4tt att analysera data.<\/p>\n

Forskarna ville enbart testa GPT-4:s f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att analysera finansiella siffror och f\u00f6rs\u00e5g den d\u00e4rf\u00f6r inte med n\u00e5gra andra uppgifter som f\u00f6retagets namn, diskussioner med ledningen eller annan f\u00f6retagsinformation.<\/p>\n

Forskarna l\u00e4t inte heller GPT-4 veta fr\u00e5n vilket \u00e5r de finansiella uppgifterna kom. Dessa anstr\u00e4ngningar hindrade GPT-4 fr\u00e5n att anv\u00e4nda sina tr\u00e4ningsdata f\u00f6r att dra slutsatser om f\u00f6retaget eller ekonomiska f\u00f6rh\u00e5llanden n\u00e4r finanserna sammanst\u00e4lldes.<\/p>\n

Resultat<\/h2>\n

GPT-4 uppn\u00e5dde en prediktionsnoggrannhet p\u00e5 60%, vilket var betydligt b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n den noggrannhet p\u00e5 53% som de m\u00e4nskliga analytikerna uppn\u00e5dde p\u00e5 samma urval av f\u00f6retagssiffror.<\/p>\n

M\u00e4nskliga analytiker analyserar vanligtvis ett f\u00f6retags siffror och kombinerar den analysen med sin bransch- och privata kunskap om f\u00f6retaget innan de utf\u00e4rdar sina prognoser.<\/p>\n

Det verkar som om GPT-4 \u00f6vertr\u00e4ffade m\u00e4nniskorna \u00e4ven med nackdelen att bara ha siffrorna utan n\u00e5got annat sammanhang.<\/p>\n

Men det kan vara den h\u00e4r opartiska analysen av GPT-4 som ger den en f\u00f6rdel j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med m\u00e4nniskor som ofta p\u00e5verkas av k\u00e4nslor och g\u00f6r partiska f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser.<\/p>\n

Finansanalytiker anv\u00e4nder ofta specialiserade maskininl\u00e4rningsmodeller (ML) f\u00f6r att analysera siffrorna och g\u00f6ra f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser \u00e5t dem. Forskarna fann att GPT-4, en generaliserad modell, presterade i niv\u00e5 med eller n\u00e5got b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n de senaste specialiserade ML-modellerna.<\/p>\n

Forskarna drog slutsatsen att \u00e4ven om de inte \u00e4r s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 hur GPT-4 g\u00f6r det, har dess f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att \u00f6vertr\u00e4ffa m\u00e4nskliga specialister \"potential f\u00f6r LLM att demokratisera finansiell informationsbehandling\".<\/p>\n

Kommer AI att ers\u00e4tta Wall Street-analytiker? Det kan h\u00e4nda tidigare \u00e4n du tror eftersom m\u00e4nniskor inte har gjort ett bra jobb.<\/p>\n

I en studie fr\u00e5n 2020 j\u00e4mf\u00f6rdes aktivt f\u00f6rvaltade investeringsfonder med utvecklingen f\u00f6r j\u00e4mf\u00f6relseindexet S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Den studien visade att om du investerade i S&P 500 skulle du ha uppn\u00e5tt b\u00e4ttre resultat \u00e4n 89% av fondf\u00f6rvaltarna. Med andra ord var det bara 11% av finansanalytikerna p\u00e5 dessa v\u00e4rdepappersf\u00f6retag som slog indexet 2020.<\/p>\n

Eftersom GPT-4 verkar prestera betydligt b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n m\u00e4nskliga analytiker kanske du snart fr\u00e5gar ChatGPT om du ska k\u00f6pa eller s\u00e4lja, snarare \u00e4n din fondf\u00f6rvaltare.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kan en generaliserad AI-modell som GPT-4 g\u00f6ra b\u00e4ttre finansiella f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser \u00e4n m\u00e4nskliga expertanalytiker? Forskare fr\u00e5n University of Chicago utforskade denna fr\u00e5ga och kom fram till \u00f6verraskande resultat. R\u00e4dslan f\u00f6r att AI ska ers\u00e4tta jobb har fr\u00e4mst handlat om l\u00e4gre kvalificerade arbetsfunktioner, men kan experter som investerings- och finansanalytiker ocks\u00e5 beh\u00f6va t\u00e4nka om sina karri\u00e4rer? I den artikel som forskarna publicerade konstateras att GPT-4 \u00e4r betydligt b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n m\u00e4nskliga experter p\u00e5 att analysera ett f\u00f6retags finansiella data och f\u00f6rutse dess framtida resultat. Deras experiment innebar att man skickade en balansr\u00e4kning och resultatr\u00e4kning i en standardiserad form till GPT-4 Turbo och<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-12647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nGPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/sv\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Could a generalized AI model like GPT-4 make better financial predictions than expert human analysts? Researchers from the University of Chicago explored this question and came up with surprising results. The fear over AI replacing jobs has centered mainly on lower-skilled job functions, but might experts like investment and financial analysts need to rethink their careers too? The paper the researchers published states that GPT-4 is significantly better than human experts at analyzing a company\u2019s financial data and predicting its future earnings. 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