A large-scale survey encompassing 2,700 AI researchers uncovered divided opinions regarding the risks of AI.<\/b><\/p>\n
The survey conducted by AI Impacts<\/a>, the largest of its kind, involved professionals who have published research at six leading AI conferences. <\/span><\/p>\n Participants were asked to weigh in on future AI milestones and their societal implications.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Notably, almost 58% of these researchers believe there’s a 5% chance of human extinction or similarly dire outcomes due to AI advancements.<\/span><\/p>\n Other findings suggest that AI has a 50% or higher likelihood of mastering tasks ranging from composing chart music to developing a complete payment processing website within the next decade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n More complex tasks, like installing electrical wiring or solving mathematical problems, are expected to take longer, though DeepMind recently demonstrated<\/a> AI’s superior performance in tackling the cap set and bin packing problems.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Researchers also estimate a 50% chance of AI surpassing human performance in all tasks by 2047 and the automation of all human jobs by 2116. This relies on science ‘remaining undisrupted.’\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The results are certainly mixed, but it’s fair to say AI risks are not deemed to have reached a critical mass yet.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Katja Grace from the Machine Intelligence Research Institute in California stated of the study<\/a>, “It\u2019s an important signal that most AI researchers don\u2019t find it strongly implausible that advanced AI destroys humanity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Here\u2019s a list of the key stats and findings:<\/span><\/p>\n 2. Time to most narrow milestones has decreased since 2022, some by a lot. AI researchers are expected to be automatable ~25 years earlier than a year before. Time to NYT bestselling fiction dropped ~9 years. pic.twitter.com\/Npmd7QNW8g<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 AI Impacts (@AIImpacts) January 4, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
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