{"id":11592,"date":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=11592"},"modified":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","slug":"chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/","title":{"rendered":"O ChatGPT prev\u00ea o futuro quando se utiliza esta inteligente pergunta"},"content":{"rendered":"

Os investigadores do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Baylor fizeram experi\u00eancias com o ChatGPT para testar a sua capacidade de prever eventos futuros. A sua abordagem inteligente contornou as barreiras de prote\u00e7\u00e3o da OpenAI e apresentou resultados surpreendentemente precisos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Os modelos de IA s\u00e3o, por natureza, motores preditivos. O ChatGPT utiliza esta capacidade de previs\u00e3o para adivinhar a pr\u00f3xima palavra que deve ser emitida em resposta ao seu pedido.<\/p>\n

Poder\u00e1 esta capacidade de previs\u00e3o ser alargada a prever acontecimentos do mundo real<\/a>? Na experi\u00eancia descrita em o seu trabalho<\/a>Pham Hoang Van e Scott Cunningham testaram a capacidade do ChatGPT de fazer exatamente isso.<\/p>\n

Eles solicitaram o ChatGPT-3.5 e o ChatGPT-4 perguntando aos modelos sobre eventos que aconteceram em 2022. As vers\u00f5es do modelo que utilizaram s\u00f3 tinham dados de treino at\u00e9 setembro de 2021, pelo que estavam a pedir aos modelos que olhassem para \"o futuro\", porque n\u00e3o tinham conhecimento de eventos para al\u00e9m dos seus dados de treino.<\/p>\n

Conta-me uma hist\u00f3ria<\/h2>\n

Os termos de servi\u00e7o da OpenAI utilizam alguns par\u00e1grafos de linguagem jur\u00eddica para dizer que n\u00e3o \u00e9 permitido utilizar o ChatGPT para tentar prever o futuro.<\/p>\n

Se pedirmos diretamente ao ChatGPT para prever eventos como os vencedores dos \u00d3scares ou factores econ\u00f3micos, ele recusa-se, na maior parte dos casos, a fazer uma estimativa.<\/p>\n

Os investigadores descobriram que, quando se pede ao ChatGPT para compor uma hist\u00f3ria fict\u00edcia passada no futuro, em que as personagens relatam o que aconteceu no \"passado\", o ChatGPT responde alegremente.<\/p>\n

Os resultados do ChatGPT-3.5 foram um pouco imprecisos, mas o artigo refere que as previs\u00f5es do ChatGPT-4 \"tornam-se invulgarmente exactas... quando se pede para contar hist\u00f3rias passadas no futuro\".<\/p>\n

Eis um exemplo de instru\u00e7\u00f5es directas e narrativas que os investigadores utilizaram para levar o ChatGPT a fazer previs\u00f5es sobre os Pr\u00e9mios da Academia de 2022. Os modelos foram solicitados 100 vezes e, em seguida, as suas previs\u00f5es foram agrupadas para obter uma m\u00e9dia das suas previs\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Os prompts diretos e narrativos que foram usados para obter uma previs\u00e3o do vencedor de Melhor Ator Coadjuvante no Oscar de 2022. Fonte: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

O vencedor de 2022 para Melhor Ator Secund\u00e1rio foi Troy Kotsur. Com uma solicita\u00e7\u00e3o direta, o ChatGPT-4 escolheu Kotsur 25% das vezes, com um ter\u00e7o das suas respostas \u00e0s 100 tentativas a recusarem-se a responder ou a dizerem que eram poss\u00edveis v\u00e1rios vencedores.<\/p>\n

Em resposta \u00e0 pergunta narrativa, ChatGPT-4 escolheu corretamente Kotsur em 100% das vezes. A compara\u00e7\u00e3o entre a abordagem direta e a narrativa teve resultados igualmente impressionantes com outras previs\u00f5es. Aqui est\u00e3o mais algumas.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Prompting direto vs. Narrativo: Previs\u00f5es do ChatGPT4 para Melhor Ator. Com o prompt narrativo, o ChatGPT-4 prev\u00ea corretamente que Will Smith ganharia com uma precis\u00e3o de 97%. Fonte: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"\"
Prompting direto vs. Narrativo: Previs\u00f5es do ChatGPT4 para Melhor Atriz Coadjuvante. Com o prompt narrativo, o ChatGPT-4 prev\u00ea Ariana DeBose como vencedora com uma precis\u00e3o de 99%. Fonte: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Quando utilizaram uma abordagem semelhante para fazer com que o ChatGPT previsse n\u00fameros econ\u00f3micos como o desemprego mensal ou as taxas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o, os resultados foram interessantes.<\/p>\n

A abordagem direta levou a que o ChatGPT se recusasse a apresentar dados mensais. No entanto, \"quando se pede a Jerome Powell para contar uma hist\u00f3ria em que ele conta um ano de dados futuros sobre o desemprego e a infla\u00e7\u00e3o, como se estivesse a falar de acontecimentos do passado, as coisas mudam substancialmente\".<\/p>\n

Os investigadores descobriram que o facto de o ChatGPT se concentrar em contar uma hist\u00f3ria interessante, em que a tarefa de previs\u00e3o era secund\u00e1ria, fez a diferen\u00e7a na precis\u00e3o da previs\u00e3o do ChatGPT.<\/p>\n

Quando solicitadas atrav\u00e9s da abordagem narrativa, as previs\u00f5es mensais de infla\u00e7\u00e3o do ChatGPT-4 foram, em m\u00e9dia, compar\u00e1veis aos valores do inqu\u00e9rito sobre as expectativas dos consumidores da Universidade de Michigan.<\/p>\n

Curiosamente, as previs\u00f5es do ChatGPT-4 estavam mais pr\u00f3ximas das previs\u00f5es dos analistas do que os valores reais que foram eventualmente registados para esses meses. Isto sugere que, quando corretamente solicitado, o ChatGPT poderia talvez fazer o trabalho de previs\u00e3o de um analista econ\u00f3mico pelo menos t\u00e3o bem.<\/p>\n

Os investigadores conclu\u00edram que a tend\u00eancia do ChatGPT para alucinar pode ser vista como uma forma de criatividade que pode ser aproveitada com um est\u00edmulo estrat\u00e9gico para o tornar numa poderosa m\u00e1quina de previs\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

\"Esta revela\u00e7\u00e3o abre novos caminhos para a aplica\u00e7\u00e3o dos MLT na previs\u00e3o econ\u00f3mica, no planeamento de pol\u00edticas e n\u00e3o s\u00f3, desafiando-nos a repensar a forma como interagimos e exploramos as capacidades destes modelos sofisticados\", conclu\u00edram.<\/p>\n

Esperemos que fa\u00e7am experi\u00eancias semelhantes quando o GPT-5 for lan\u00e7ado.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Os investigadores do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Baylor fizeram experi\u00eancias com o ChatGPT para testar a sua capacidade de prever eventos futuros. A sua abordagem inteligente contornou as barreiras de prote\u00e7\u00e3o da OpenAI e apresentou resultados surpreendentemente precisos. Os modelos de IA s\u00e3o, por natureza, motores de previs\u00e3o. O ChatGPT utiliza esta capacidade de previs\u00e3o para fazer a melhor estimativa da palavra seguinte que deve emitir em resposta ao seu pedido. Poder\u00e1 esta capacidade de previs\u00e3o ser alargada para prever eventos do mundo real? Na experi\u00eancia descrita no seu artigo, Pham Hoang Van e Scott Cunningham testaram a capacidade do ChatGPT para fazer exatamente isso. Eles solicitaram ao ChatGPT-3.5 e ao ChatGPT-4 que perguntassem aos modelos sobre eventos que<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11597,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-11592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Baylor University Department of Economics researchers experimented with ChatGPT to test its ability to predict future events. 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