{"id":11235,"date":"2024-04-03T14:29:19","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T14:29:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=11235"},"modified":"2024-04-03T14:29:19","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T14:29:19","slug":"berkeley-researchers-build-ai-forecasting-system-that-bests-humans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2024\/04\/berkeley-researchers-build-ai-forecasting-system-that-bests-humans\/","title":{"rendered":"Investigadores de Berkeley criam sistema de previs\u00e3o de IA que supera os humanos"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Os investigadores da Universidade de Berkeley, na Calif\u00f3rnia, desenvolveram um sistema de previs\u00e3o de IA para prever acontecimentos futuros com uma precis\u00e3o semelhante \u00e0 sabedoria humana.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Uma vez que os LLM n\u00e3o s\u00e3o concebidos especificamente para a previs\u00e3o de eventos, a equipa construiu um sistema de previs\u00e3o com base no GPT-4, utilizando uma nova abordagem denominada racioc\u00ednio aumentado por recupera\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Este processo de v\u00e1rias etapas envolveu o treino do GPT-4 para procurar informa\u00e7\u00e3o pertinente, avaliar a sua relev\u00e2ncia e integr\u00e1-la no seu processo de racioc\u00ednio antes de fazer uma previs\u00e3o.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Eis como funciona:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Recupera\u00e7\u00e3o<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: O sistema de IA utiliza o GPT-4 para gerar consultas de pesquisa com base na pergunta e subperguntas de previs\u00e3o, recuperando um vasto conjunto de artigos de not\u00edcias potencialmente relevantes.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Avalia\u00e7\u00e3o da pertin\u00eancia<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: O GPT-4 avalia a relev\u00e2ncia de cada artigo recuperado, descartando artigos com baixa pontua\u00e7\u00e3o para reduzir o conjunto de informa\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Sumariza\u00e7\u00e3o<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: O GPT-4 reduz cada artigo aos seus pontos-chave, concentrando-se nos pormenores relacionados com a quest\u00e3o da previs\u00e3o.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Racioc\u00ednio<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: A partir de \"instru\u00e7\u00f5es de rascunho\", o GPT-4 analisa os artigos resumidos e produz uma previs\u00e3o pormenorizada com uma justifica\u00e7\u00e3o explicativa. Estas instru\u00e7\u00f5es guiam o processo de pensamento do modelo, encorajando uma abordagem sistem\u00e1tica do racioc\u00ednio.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A equipa de Berkeley levou ent\u00e3o o sistema um passo mais longe, com um ajuste fino auto-supervisionado.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Geraram um grande n\u00famero de previs\u00f5es de IA sobre quest\u00f5es passadas com respostas conhecidas e seleccionaram exemplos em que a IA tinha superado a \"sabedoria da multid\u00e3o\" - definida como as previs\u00f5es agregadas de analistas humanos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ao afinar o GPT-4 com estes exemplos, os investigadores ensinaram o modelo a emular os padr\u00f5es de racioc\u00ednio que criaram as melhores previs\u00f5es.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Resultados<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Quando testada em quest\u00f5es de previs\u00e3o a partir de junho de 2023, a IA alcan\u00e7ou uma pontua\u00e7\u00e3o Brier de 0,179, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com a pontua\u00e7\u00e3o humana de 0,149.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A IA teve um desempenho particularmente bom em quest\u00f5es com elevada incerteza humana no in\u00edcio do processo de previs\u00e3o e quando teve acesso a um n\u00famero suficiente de artigos relevantes sobre um determinado t\u00f3pico.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11236\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11236\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-11236 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Aiforecast-1024x348.png\" alt=\"Previs\u00e3o de IA\" width=\"1024\" height=\"348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Aiforecast-1024x348.png 1024w, https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Aiforecast-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Aiforecast-768x261.png 768w, https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Aiforecast-60x20.png 60w, https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Aiforecast.png 1161w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11236\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(a) O sistema tem um desempenho melhor do que um grupo de pessoas quando tem 0 a 10 artigos relevantes.<br \/>(b) Quando as pessoas n\u00e3o t\u00eam a certeza das suas previs\u00f5es (n\u00edveis de confian\u00e7a entre 0,3 e 0,7), o sistema sai-se melhor, com uma pontua\u00e7\u00e3o de Brier de 0,199 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com os seus 0,246. No entanto, quando as pessoas est\u00e3o muito seguras (previs\u00f5es inferiores a 0,05), saem-se melhor do que o nosso sistema.<br \/>(c) A precis\u00e3o do sistema \u00e9 maior no in\u00edcio da recolha de informa\u00e7\u00f5es. Fonte: <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2402.18563.pdf\">ArXiv<\/a> (acesso livre).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Os autores escrevem no <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2402.18563.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">estudo<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\"Tanto quanto sabemos, este \u00e9 o primeiro sistema automatizado com capacidade de previs\u00e3o que se aproxima do n\u00edvel da multid\u00e3o humana, que \u00e9 geralmente mais forte do que os previsores humanos individuais\".<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Houve uma pequena peculiaridade, pois o sistema pareceu piorar com mais artigos para trabalhar e, portanto, com maior certeza sobre a previs\u00e3o. Isto pode dever-se ao facto de o modelo \"proteger\" as suas previs\u00f5es.<\/p>\n<p>Os investigadores descrevem-no da seguinte forma: \"A nossa hip\u00f3tese \u00e9 que este facto se deve \u00e0 tend\u00eancia do nosso modelo para fazer previs\u00f5es de cobertura devido \u00e0 sua forma\u00e7\u00e3o em seguran\u00e7a.\"<\/p>\n<h2>Implica\u00e7\u00f5es<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">De acordo com os investigadores, os decisores pol\u00edticos, as empresas e os respons\u00e1veis pela sa\u00fade p\u00fablica poder\u00e3o beneficiar desta forma de previs\u00e3o de IA baseada na l\u00edngua.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\"No futuro, os decisores pol\u00edticos poder\u00e3o consultar as IAs sobre as ac\u00e7\u00f5es que mais provavelmente produzir\u00e3o os resultados desejados\", afirma Dan Hendrycks, do Center for AI Safety, na Calif\u00f3rnia.<\/p>\n<p>Prop\u00f5e que os modelos de previs\u00e3o possam fazer face aos perigos futuros colocados pela IA. \"Os bots de previs\u00e3o ajudar-nos-iam a antecipar e a evitar estes riscos\", afirma Hendrycks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/2424121-ai-forecaster-can-predict-the-future-better-than-humans\/#:~:text=Danny%20Halawi%20at%20the%20University,cases%2C%20better%20than%20the%20crowd.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">disse ao New Scientist<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Foram feitas outras tentativas para prever acontecimentos complexos da vida com a IA, incluindo um modelo treinado por investigadores dinamarqueses para <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2023\/12\/danish-researchers-predict-the-risk-of-premature-death-with-ai\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">prever os riscos de morte prematura<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">O aproveitamento da IA para aplica\u00e7\u00f5es preditivas que afectam a vida das pessoas coloca quest\u00f5es \u00e9ticas, tais como a garantia de que estes sistemas s\u00e3o transparentes, imparciais e eticamente fundamentados. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Este novo estudo de Berkeley descreve como a IA pode fazer previs\u00f5es eficazes, mas n\u00e3o podemos avaliar a precis\u00e3o com que chega \u00e0s suas decis\u00f5es.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o da IA para prever grandes acontecimentos sociais e individuais pode parecer um conceito dist\u00f3pico, mas \u00e9 j\u00e1 uma pr\u00e1tica generalizada em muitas partes do mundo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Em v\u00e1rios pa\u00edses democr\u00e1ticos, incluindo os EUA, o Reino Unido, o Brasil, a Austr\u00e1lia e os Pa\u00edses Baixos, a IA \u00e9 utilizada para <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2023\/10\/predictive-policing-underdelivers-on-its-goals-and-risks-discrimination\/\">policiamento<\/a>vigil\u00e2ncia, e <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2023\/11\/ai-models-in-the-public-sector-are-we-heading-towards-an-algocracy\/\">tomada de decis\u00f5es em mat\u00e9ria de bem-estar<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Poder\u00e1 uma IA estar a prever aspectos do seu futuro neste preciso momento? \u00c9 certamente poss\u00edvel.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Os investigadores da Universidade de Berkeley, na Calif\u00f3rnia, desenvolveram um sistema de previs\u00e3o de IA para prever eventos futuros com uma precis\u00e3o semelhante \u00e0 da sabedoria da multid\u00e3o humana.  Uma vez que os LLM n\u00e3o foram concebidos especificamente para a previs\u00e3o de eventos, a equipa criou um sistema de previs\u00e3o com base no GPT-4, utilizando uma nova abordagem denominada racioc\u00ednio aumentado por recupera\u00e7\u00e3o. Este processo de v\u00e1rias etapas envolveu o treino do GPT-4 para procurar informa\u00e7\u00e3o pertinente, avaliar a sua relev\u00e2ncia e integr\u00e1-la no seu processo de racioc\u00ednio antes de fazer uma previs\u00e3o.  Eis como funciona: Recupera\u00e7\u00e3o: O sistema de IA utiliza o GPT-4 para gerar consultas de pesquisa com base na pergunta e subperguntas de previs\u00e3o, recuperando um vasto conjunto de informa\u00e7\u00f5es potencialmente<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11237,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[105],"class_list":["post-11235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-machine-learning"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Berkeley researchers build AI forecasting system that bests humans | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2024\/04\/berkeley-researchers-build-ai-forecasting-system-that-bests-humans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Berkeley researchers build AI forecasting system that bests humans | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Researchers at the University of Berkeley, California, developed an AI forecasting system to predict future events with similar accuracy to human crowd wisdom.\u00a0 As LLMs are not purpose-built for event forecasting, the team built a forecasting system on top of GPT-4 using a novel approach called retrieval-augmented reasoning. This multi-step process involved training GPT-4 to search for pertinent information, assess its relevance, and integrate it into its reasoning process before making a prediction.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how it works: Retrieval: The AI system uses GPT-4 to generate search queries based on the forecasting question and sub-questions, retrieving a broad set of potentially\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/pt\/2024\/04\/berkeley-researchers-build-ai-forecasting-system-that-bests-humans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-03T14:29:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-04-03-15.16.51-Craft-a-landscape-image-that-focuses-more-on-the-concept-of-graphs-and-forecasting-rather-than-buildings-set-against-a-futuristic-night-sky.-Imagine-.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" 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