{"id":12647,"date":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=12647"},"modified":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","slug":"gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/nb\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"GPT-4 gj\u00f8r det bedre enn finansanalytikere n\u00e5r det gjelder \u00e5 forutsi inntjening"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kan en generalisert AI-modell som GPT-4 gi bedre \u00f8konomiske sp\u00e5dommer enn menneskelige ekspertanalytikere? Forskere fra University of Chicago utforsket dette sp\u00f8rsm\u00e5let og kom frem til overraskende resultater.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Frykten for at kunstig intelligens skal erstatte jobber har hovedsakelig dreid seg om lavere kvalifiserte jobbfunksjoner, men kan det hende at eksperter som investerings- og finansanalytikere ogs\u00e5 m\u00e5 revurdere karrierene sine?<\/p>\n

Avisen<\/a> forskerne publiserte, viser at GPT-4 er betydelig bedre enn menneskelige eksperter til \u00e5 analysere et selskaps finansielle data og forutsi dets fremtidige inntjening.<\/p>\n

Eksperimentet gikk ut p\u00e5 \u00e5 sende en balanse og et resultatregnskap i standardisert form til GPT-4 Turbo og be modellen om \u00e5 analysere dem.<\/p>\n

Modellen ble deretter spurt om selskapets \u00f8konomiske resultater var b\u00e6rekraftige, og om inntjeningen ville \u00f8ke eller avta i den p\u00e5f\u00f8lgende perioden.<\/p>\n

Ved hjelp av Chain-of-Thought (CoT)-prompting fikk de modellen til \u00e5 etterligne en finansanalytiker i m\u00e5ten den analyserte dataene p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Forskerne \u00f8nsket utelukkende \u00e5 teste GPT-4s evne til \u00e5 analysere finansielle tall, s\u00e5 de ga den ikke andre data som selskapets navn, ledelsesdiskusjoner eller annen bedriftsinformasjon.<\/p>\n

Forskerne lot heller ikke GPT-4 f\u00e5 vite hvilket \u00e5r de finansielle dataene stammet fra. Dermed kunne ikke GPT-4 bruke treningsdataene til \u00e5 trekke slutninger om selskapet eller de \u00f8konomiske forholdene da regnskapene ble utarbeidet.<\/p>\n

Resultater<\/h2>\n

GPT-4 oppn\u00e5dde en prediksjonsn\u00f8yaktighet p\u00e5 60%, noe som var betydelig bedre enn n\u00f8yaktigheten p\u00e5 53% som de menneskelige analytikerne oppn\u00e5dde p\u00e5 det samme utvalget av bedriftstall.<\/p>\n

Menneskelige analytikere analyserer vanligvis et selskaps tall og kombinerer denne analysen med sin bransjekunnskap og private kunnskap om selskapet f\u00f8r de utarbeider sine prognoser.<\/p>\n

Det ser ut til at GPT-4 gjorde det bedre enn menneskene, selv med den ulempen at vi bare hadde tallene uten noen annen kontekst.<\/p>\n

Men det kan v\u00e6re denne saklige, objektive analysen fra GPT-4 som gir den en fordel i forhold til mennesker, som ofte p\u00e5virkes av f\u00f8lelser og kommer med forutinntatte sp\u00e5dommer.<\/p>\n

Finansanalytikere bruker ofte spesialiserte maskinl\u00e6ringsmodeller (ML) til \u00e5 knuse tallene for \u00e5 komme med sp\u00e5dommer for dem. Forskerne fant ut at GPT-4, en generalisert modell, presterte p\u00e5 niv\u00e5 med eller litt bedre enn de mest avanserte spesialiserte ML-modellene.<\/p>\n

Forskerne konkluderte med at selv om de ikke er sikre p\u00e5 hvordan GPT-4 gj\u00f8r det, har dens evne til \u00e5 utkonkurrere menneskelige spesialister \"potensial for at LLM-er kan demokratisere behandlingen av finansiell informasjon\".<\/p>\n

Vil AI erstatte Wall Street-analytikere? Det kan skje raskere enn du tror, for menneskene har ikke gjort en god jobb.<\/p>\n

En studie fra 2020 sammenlignet aktivt forvaltede investeringsfond med resultatene til referanseindeksen S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Studien viste at hvis du investerte i S&P 500, ville du ha oppn\u00e5dd bedre resultater enn 89% av fondsforvalterne. Med andre ord var det bare 11% av finansanalytikerne i disse verdipapirforetakene som slo indeksen i 2020.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5 som GPT-4 ser ut til \u00e5 gj\u00f8re det betydelig bedre enn menneskelige analytikere, kan du snart sp\u00f8rre ChatGPT om du skal kj\u00f8pe eller selge, i stedet for fondsforvalteren din.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kan en generalisert AI-modell som GPT-4 gi bedre \u00f8konomiske sp\u00e5dommer enn menneskelige ekspertanalytikere? Forskere fra University of Chicago har unders\u00f8kt dette sp\u00f8rsm\u00e5let og kommet frem til overraskende resultater. Frykten for at kunstig intelligens skal erstatte jobber har hovedsakelig dreid seg om lavere kvalifiserte jobbfunksjoner, men kan det hende at eksperter som investerings- og finansanalytikere ogs\u00e5 m\u00e5 tenke nytt om karrieren sin? I artikkelen som forskerne publiserte, st\u00e5r det at GPT-4 er betydelig bedre enn menneskelige eksperter til \u00e5 analysere et selskaps \u00f8konomiske data og forutsi dets fremtidige inntjening. Eksperimentet gikk ut p\u00e5 \u00e5 sende en balanse og et resultatregnskap i et standardisert skjema til GPT-4 Turbo og<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-12647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nGPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/nb\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"nb_NO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Could a generalized AI model like GPT-4 make better financial predictions than expert human analysts? 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