{"id":12647,"date":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=12647"},"modified":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","slug":"gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/fr\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"GPT-4 surpasse les analystes financiers dans la pr\u00e9vision des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un mod\u00e8le d'IA g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e comme GPT-4 pourrait-il faire de meilleures pr\u00e9visions financi\u00e8res que des analystes humains experts ? Des chercheurs de l'universit\u00e9 de Chicago se sont pench\u00e9s sur cette question et ont obtenu des r\u00e9sultats surprenants.<\/strong><\/p>\n

La crainte de voir l'IA remplacer des emplois s'est principalement concentr\u00e9e sur les fonctions moins qualifi\u00e9es, mais les experts tels que les analystes financiers et d'investissement pourraient-ils \u00e9galement avoir besoin de repenser leur carri\u00e8re ?<\/p>\n

Le document<\/a> publi\u00e9e par les chercheurs indique que le GPT-4 est nettement plus performant que les experts humains pour analyser les donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res d'une entreprise et pr\u00e9dire ses b\u00e9n\u00e9fices futurs.<\/p>\n

Leur exp\u00e9rience a consist\u00e9 \u00e0 transmettre un bilan et un compte de r\u00e9sultat sous une forme standardis\u00e9e \u00e0 GPT-4 Turbo et \u00e0 demander au mod\u00e8le de les analyser.<\/p>\n

Il a ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 demand\u00e9 au mod\u00e8le si la performance \u00e9conomique de l'entreprise \u00e9tait durable et si ses b\u00e9n\u00e9fices allaient augmenter ou diminuer au cours de la p\u00e9riode suivante.<\/p>\n

En utilisant la cha\u00eene de pens\u00e9e (CoT), ils ont entra\u00een\u00e9 le mod\u00e8le \u00e0 imiter un analyste financier dans sa fa\u00e7on d'analyser les donn\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Les chercheurs voulaient tester exclusivement la capacit\u00e9 du GPT-4 \u00e0 analyser les chiffres financiers. Ils ne lui ont donc pas fourni d'autres donn\u00e9es telles que le nom de l'entreprise, les discussions de la direction ou d'autres informations sur l'entreprise.<\/p>\n

Les chercheurs n'ont pas non plus laiss\u00e9 GPT-4 savoir de quelle ann\u00e9e provenaient les donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res. Ces efforts ont emp\u00each\u00e9 GPT-4 d'utiliser ses donn\u00e9es d'entra\u00eenement pour faire des d\u00e9ductions sur l'entreprise ou les conditions \u00e9conomiques au moment o\u00f9 les donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res ont \u00e9t\u00e9 compil\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

R\u00e9sultats<\/h2>\n

GPT-4 a obtenu une pr\u00e9cision de pr\u00e9diction de 60%, ce qui est nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la pr\u00e9cision de 53% obtenue par les analystes humains sur le m\u00eame \u00e9chantillon de chiffres d'entreprise.<\/p>\n

Les analystes humains analysent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les chiffres d'une entreprise et combinent cette analyse avec leur connaissance du secteur et leur connaissance personnelle de l'entreprise avant d'\u00e9mettre leurs pr\u00e9visions.<\/p>\n

Il semble que le GPT-4 ait obtenu de meilleurs r\u00e9sultats que les humains, m\u00eame avec l'inconv\u00e9nient de ne disposer que des chiffres sans autre contexte.<\/p>\n

Mais c'est peut-\u00eatre cette analyse impartiale du GPT-4 qui lui donne un avantage sur les humains qui sont souvent influenc\u00e9s par les sentiments ou les \u00e9motions et qui font des pr\u00e9dictions biais\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Les analystes financiers font souvent appel \u00e0 des mod\u00e8les sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9s d'apprentissage automatique pour analyser les chiffres et faire des pr\u00e9dictions \u00e0 leur place. Les chercheurs ont constat\u00e9 que le mod\u00e8le g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 GPT-4 avait des performances \u00e9quivalentes ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 celles des mod\u00e8les d'apprentissage automatique sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9s les plus r\u00e9cents.<\/p>\n

Les chercheurs ont conclu que, m\u00eame s'ils ne savent pas exactement comment le GPT-4 y parvient, sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 surpasser les sp\u00e9cialistes humains offre \"la possibilit\u00e9 aux LLM de d\u00e9mocratiser le traitement de l'information financi\u00e8re\".<\/p>\n

L'IA remplacera-t-elle les analystes de Wall Street ? Cela pourrait arriver plus t\u00f4t que vous ne le pensez, car les humains n'ont pas fait du bon travail.<\/p>\n

Une \u00e9tude r\u00e9alis\u00e9e en 2020 a compar\u00e9 les fonds d'investissement g\u00e9r\u00e9s activement \u00e0 la performance de l'indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Cette \u00e9tude a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que si vous aviez investi dans le S&P 500, vous auriez obtenu de meilleurs r\u00e9sultats que 89% des gestionnaires de fonds. En d'autres termes, seuls 11% des analystes financiers de ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d'investissement ont battu l'indice en 2020.<\/p>\n

Le GPT-4 semblant nettement plus performant que les analystes humains, vous pourriez bient\u00f4t demander au ChatGPT d'acheter ou de vendre, plut\u00f4t qu'\u00e0 votre gestionnaire de fonds.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un mod\u00e8le d'IA g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e comme GPT-4 pourrait-il faire de meilleures pr\u00e9visions financi\u00e8res que des analystes humains experts ? Des chercheurs de l'universit\u00e9 de Chicago se sont pench\u00e9s sur cette question et ont obtenu des r\u00e9sultats surprenants. La crainte de voir l'IA remplacer des emplois s'est principalement concentr\u00e9e sur les fonctions moins qualifi\u00e9es, mais les experts tels que les analystes financiers et les analystes d'investissement ne devraient-ils pas eux aussi repenser leur carri\u00e8re ? L'article publi\u00e9 par les chercheurs indique que le GPT-4 est nettement plus performant que les experts humains pour analyser les donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res d'une entreprise et pr\u00e9dire ses b\u00e9n\u00e9fices futurs. Leur exp\u00e9rience a consist\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9senter un bilan et un compte de r\u00e9sultat sous une forme standardis\u00e9e \u00e0 GPT-4 Turbo et \u00e0 GPT-4 Turbo.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-12647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nGPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/fr\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Could a generalized AI model like GPT-4 make better financial predictions than expert human analysts? Researchers from the University of Chicago explored this question and came up with surprising results. The fear over AI replacing jobs has centered mainly on lower-skilled job functions, but might experts like investment and financial analysts need to rethink their careers too? The paper the researchers published states that GPT-4 is significantly better than human experts at analyzing a company\u2019s financial data and predicting its future earnings. 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