{"id":11592,"date":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=11592"},"modified":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","slug":"chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/fr\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/","title":{"rendered":"ChatGPT pr\u00e9dit l'avenir lorsque vous utilisez cette invite intelligente"},"content":{"rendered":"

Des chercheurs du d\u00e9partement d'\u00e9conomie de l'universit\u00e9 de Baylor ont exp\u00e9riment\u00e9 le ChatGPT pour tester sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs. Leur approche astucieuse a permis de contourner les garde-fous d'OpenAI et d'obtenir des r\u00e9sultats \u00e9tonnamment pr\u00e9cis.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les mod\u00e8les d'IA sont par nature des moteurs pr\u00e9dictifs. ChatGPT utilise cette capacit\u00e9 pr\u00e9dictive pour deviner au mieux le prochain mot qu'il doit produire en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 votre demande.<\/p>\n

Cette capacit\u00e9 de pr\u00e9diction pourrait-elle \u00eatre \u00e9tendue aux pr\u00e9voir les \u00e9v\u00e9nements du monde r\u00e9el<\/a>? Dans l'exp\u00e9rience d\u00e9crite dans leur document<\/a>En effet, Pham Hoang Van et Scott Cunningham ont mis \u00e0 l'\u00e9preuve la capacit\u00e9 du ChatGPT \u00e0 faire cela.<\/p>\n

Ils ont lanc\u00e9 ChatGPT-3.5 et ChatGPT-4 en interrogeant les mod\u00e8les sur des \u00e9v\u00e9nements survenus en 2022. Les versions de mod\u00e8les qu'ils ont utilis\u00e9es ne disposaient de donn\u00e9es d'entra\u00eenement que jusqu'en septembre 2021, de sorte qu'ils demandaient en fait aux mod\u00e8les de se projeter dans \"l'avenir\", car ils n'avaient aucune connaissance des \u00e9v\u00e9nements au-del\u00e0 de leurs donn\u00e9es d'entra\u00eenement.<\/p>\n

Racontez-moi une histoire<\/h2>\n

Les conditions d'utilisation d'OpenAI utilisent quelques paragraphes de jargon juridique pour dire essentiellement que vous n'\u00eates pas autoris\u00e9 \u00e0 utiliser ChatGPT pour essayer de pr\u00e9dire l'avenir.<\/p>\n

Si vous demandez directement \u00e0 ChatGPT de pr\u00e9voir des \u00e9v\u00e9nements tels que les laur\u00e9ats des Oscars ou des facteurs \u00e9conomiques, il refuse la plupart du temps de faire ne serait-ce qu'une supposition \u00e9clair\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Les chercheurs ont constat\u00e9 que lorsque vous demandez \u00e0 ChatGPT de composer une histoire fictive se d\u00e9roulant dans le futur et dans laquelle les personnages racontent ce qui s'est pass\u00e9 dans le \"pass\u00e9\", il s'ex\u00e9cute volontiers.<\/p>\n

Les r\u00e9sultats de ChatGPT-3.5 \u00e9taient quelque peu al\u00e9atoires, mais l'article note que les pr\u00e9dictions de ChatGPT-4 \"deviennent exceptionnellement pr\u00e9cises... lorsqu'on leur demande de raconter des histoires du pass\u00e9 qui se d\u00e9roulent dans le futur\".<\/p>\n

Voici un exemple d'incitations directes et narratives que les chercheurs ont utilis\u00e9es pour amener ChatGPT \u00e0 faire des pr\u00e9dictions sur les Oscars 2022. Les mod\u00e8les ont \u00e9t\u00e9 sollicit\u00e9s 100 fois, puis leurs pr\u00e9dictions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 rassembl\u00e9es pour obtenir une moyenne de leurs pr\u00e9visions.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Les invites directes et narratives qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9es pour obtenir une pr\u00e9diction du gagnant du meilleur second r\u00f4le masculin aux Oscars 2022. Source : arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Le gagnant de 2022 pour le meilleur acteur dans un second r\u00f4le est Troy Kotsur. Lorsque ChatGPT-4 a \u00e9t\u00e9 directement sollicit\u00e9, il a choisi Kotsur dans 25% des cas, un tiers de ses r\u00e9ponses aux 100 essais refusant de r\u00e9pondre ou indiquant qu'il \u00e9tait possible d'avoir plusieurs gagnants.<\/p>\n

En r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 l'invite narrative, ChatGPT-4 a correctement choisi Kotsur dans 100% des cas. La comparaison entre l'approche directe et l'approche narrative a donn\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats tout aussi impressionnants avec d'autres pr\u00e9dictions. En voici quelques-unes.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Promesses directes ou narratives : Pr\u00e9dictions de ChatGPT4 pour le meilleur acteur. Avec l'invite narrative, ChatGPT-4 pr\u00e9dit correctement que Will Smith gagnerait avec une pr\u00e9cision de 97%. Source : arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"\"
Promesses directes ou narratives : Les pr\u00e9dictions de ChatGPT4 pour la meilleure actrice dans un second r\u00f4le. Avec l'incitation narrative, ChatGPT-4 pr\u00e9dit Ariana DeBose comme gagnante avec une pr\u00e9cision de 99%. Source : arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Lorsqu'ils ont utilis\u00e9 une approche similaire pour demander \u00e0 ChatGPT de pr\u00e9voir des chiffres \u00e9conomiques tels que le taux de ch\u00f4mage mensuel ou le taux d'inflation, les r\u00e9sultats ont \u00e9t\u00e9 int\u00e9ressants.<\/p>\n

L'approche directe a suscit\u00e9 le refus de ChatGPT de fournir des chiffres mensuels. Cependant, \"lorsqu'on demande \u00e0 Jerome Powell de raconter une histoire dans laquelle il \u00e9voque une ann\u00e9e de donn\u00e9es futures sur le ch\u00f4mage et l'inflation, comme s'il parlait d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements pass\u00e9s, les choses changent consid\u00e9rablement\".<\/p>\n

Les chercheurs ont constat\u00e9 que le fait d'inciter ChatGPT \u00e0 se concentrer sur la narration d'une histoire int\u00e9ressante, alors que la t\u00e2che de pr\u00e9diction \u00e9tait secondaire, faisait une diff\u00e9rence dans la pr\u00e9cision des pr\u00e9visions de ChatGPT.<\/p>\n

Lorsqu'on leur a demand\u00e9 d'utiliser l'approche narrative, les pr\u00e9visions d'inflation mensuelles de ChatGPT-4 \u00e9taient en moyenne comparables aux chiffres de l'enqu\u00eate sur les attentes des consommateurs de l'Universit\u00e9 du Michigan.<\/p>\n

Il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que les pr\u00e9visions de ChatGPT-4 \u00e9taient plus proches des pr\u00e9visions des analystes que des chiffres r\u00e9els qui ont finalement \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9s pour ces mois. Cela sugg\u00e8re que, lorsqu'il est correctement sollicit\u00e9, ChatGPT pourrait peut-\u00eatre faire au moins aussi bien le travail de pr\u00e9vision d'un analyste \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n

Les chercheurs ont conclu que la tendance \u00e0 l'hallucination du ChatGPT pouvait \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme une forme de cr\u00e9ativit\u00e9 qui pourrait \u00eatre exploit\u00e9e par des incitations strat\u00e9giques pour en faire une puissante machine \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire.<\/p>\n

\"Cette r\u00e9v\u00e9lation ouvre de nouvelles voies pour l'application des LLM dans les pr\u00e9visions \u00e9conomiques, la planification des politiques et au-del\u00e0, nous incitant \u00e0 repenser la mani\u00e8re dont nous interagissons avec ces mod\u00e8les sophistiqu\u00e9s et dont nous en exploitons les capacit\u00e9s\", concluent-ils.<\/p>\n

Esp\u00e9rons qu'ils m\u00e8neront des exp\u00e9riences similaires lorsque le GPT-5 sera disponible.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Des chercheurs du d\u00e9partement d'\u00e9conomie de l'universit\u00e9 de Baylor ont exp\u00e9riment\u00e9 le ChatGPT pour tester sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs. Leur approche astucieuse a permis de contourner les garde-fous d'OpenAI et d'obtenir des r\u00e9sultats \u00e9tonnamment pr\u00e9cis. Les mod\u00e8les d'IA sont par nature des moteurs pr\u00e9dictifs. ChatGPT utilise cette capacit\u00e9 pr\u00e9dictive pour deviner au mieux le prochain mot qu'il devrait prononcer en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 votre invite. Cette capacit\u00e9 de pr\u00e9diction pourrait-elle \u00eatre \u00e9tendue pour pr\u00e9voir des \u00e9v\u00e9nements du monde r\u00e9el ? Dans l'exp\u00e9rience d\u00e9crite dans leur article, Pham Hoang Van et Scott Cunningham ont test\u00e9 la capacit\u00e9 de ChatGPT \u00e0 le faire. Ils ont sollicit\u00e9 ChatGPT-3.5 et ChatGPT-4 en interrogeant les mod\u00e8les sur des \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11597,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-11592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/fr\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Baylor University Department of Economics researchers experimented with ChatGPT to test its ability to predict future events. 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