{"id":11592,"date":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=11592"},"modified":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","slug":"chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/es\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/","title":{"rendered":"ChatGPT predice el futuro cuando utilizas este ingenioso indicador"},"content":{"rendered":"

Investigadores del Departamento de Econom\u00eda de la Universidad de Baylor experimentaron con ChatGPT para probar su capacidad de predecir acontecimientos futuros. Su ingenioso m\u00e9todo de sugerencia eludi\u00f3 las barreras de OpenAI y ofreci\u00f3 resultados sorprendentemente precisos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Los modelos de IA son, por naturaleza, motores predictivos. ChatGPT utiliza esta capacidad predictiva para hacer la mejor estimaci\u00f3n de la siguiente palabra que debe salir en respuesta a su solicitud.<\/p>\n

\u00bfPodr\u00eda ampliarse esta capacidad predictiva a prever acontecimientos del mundo real<\/a>? En el experimento descrito en su papel<\/a>Pham Hoang Van y Scott Cunningham pusieron a prueba la capacidad de ChatGPT.<\/p>\n

Para ello, preguntaron a los modelos ChatGPT-3.5 y ChatGPT-4 sobre acontecimientos ocurridos en 2022. Las versiones del modelo que utilizaron solo ten\u00edan datos de entrenamiento hasta septiembre de 2021, por lo que en realidad estaban pidiendo a los modelos que miraran hacia \"el futuro\", ya que no ten\u00edan conocimiento de los acontecimientos m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de sus datos de entrenamiento.<\/p>\n

Cu\u00e9ntame una historia<\/h2>\n

Los t\u00e9rminos de servicio de OpenAI utilizan algunos p\u00e1rrafos de jerga legal para decir esencialmente que no est\u00e1 permitido utilizar ChatGPT para intentar predecir el futuro.<\/p>\n

Si se le pide directamente a ChatGPT que pronostique acontecimientos como los ganadores de los Oscar o factores econ\u00f3micos, la mayor\u00eda de las veces se niega a hacer siquiera una conjetura.<\/p>\n

Los investigadores descubrieron que cuando se le pide a ChatGPT que componga una historia ficticia ambientada en el futuro en la que los personajes relatan lo que ocurri\u00f3 en \"el pasado\", lo hace encantado.<\/p>\n

Los resultados de ChatGPT-3.5 fueron un poco irregulares, pero el art\u00edculo se\u00f1ala que las predicciones de ChatGPT-4 \"se vuelven inusualmente precisas... cuando se les pide que cuenten historias del pasado ambientadas en el futuro\".<\/p>\n

Este es un ejemplo de las indicaciones directas y narrativas que utilizaron los investigadores para que ChatGPT hiciera predicciones sobre los Oscar de 2022. Los modelos fueron incitados 100 veces y luego se cotejaron sus predicciones para obtener una media de sus pron\u00f3sticos.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Indicaciones directas y narrativas utilizadas para predecir el ganador del premio al mejor actor de reparto en los Oscar de 2022. Fuente: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

El ganador de 2022 al mejor actor de reparto fue Troy Kotsur. Con preguntas directas, ChatGPT-4 eligi\u00f3 a Kotsur 25% de las veces, y un tercio de sus respuestas a las 100 pruebas se negaron a responder o dijeron que era posible que hubiera varios ganadores.<\/p>\n

En respuesta a la pregunta narrativa, ChatGPT-4 eligi\u00f3 correctamente a Kotsur el 100% de las veces. La comparaci\u00f3n entre el enfoque directo y el narrativo tuvo resultados igualmente impresionantes con otras predicciones. He aqu\u00ed algunos m\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Directo vs. Narrativo: Predicciones de ChatGPT4 para el Mejor Actor. Con el est\u00edmulo narrativo, ChatGPT-4 predice correctamente que Will Smith ganar\u00e1 con una precisi\u00f3n de 97%. Fuente: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"\"
Directo vs. Narrativo: Predicciones de ChatGPT4 para la Mejor Actriz de Reparto. Con el est\u00edmulo narrativo, ChatGPT-4 predice que Ariana DeBose ser\u00e1 la ganadora con una precisi\u00f3n de 99%. Fuente: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Cuando utilizaron un m\u00e9todo similar para que ChatGPT pronosticara cifras econ\u00f3micas como el desempleo mensual o las tasas de inflaci\u00f3n, los resultados fueron interesantes.<\/p>\n

El enfoque directo suscit\u00f3 la negativa de ChatGPT a ofrecer cifras mensuales. Sin embargo, \"cuando se le pide que cuente una historia en la que Jerome Powell relata los datos futuros de desempleo e inflaci\u00f3n de un a\u00f1o, como si estuviera hablando de los acontecimientos del pasado, las cosas cambian sustancialmente.\"<\/p>\n

Los investigadores descubrieron que incitar a ChatGPT a centrarse en contar una historia interesante en la que la tarea de predicci\u00f3n era secundaria marcaba la diferencia en la precisi\u00f3n de la predicci\u00f3n de ChatGPT.<\/p>\n

Cuando se les pregunt\u00f3 utilizando el enfoque narrativo, las predicciones mensuales de inflaci\u00f3n de ChatGPT-4 fueron por t\u00e9rmino medio comparables a las cifras de la encuesta de expectativas de los consumidores de la Universidad de Michigan.<\/p>\n

Curiosamente, las predicciones de ChatGPT-4 se acercaban m\u00e1s a las predicciones de los analistas que las cifras reales que se registraron finalmente para esos meses. Esto sugiere que, si se le pregunta adecuadamente, ChatGPT podr\u00eda hacer el trabajo de previsi\u00f3n de un analista econ\u00f3mico al menos igual de bien.<\/p>\n

Los investigadores concluyeron que la tendencia de ChatGPT a alucinar podr\u00eda considerarse una forma de creatividad que podr\u00eda aprovecharse con indicaciones estrat\u00e9gicas para convertirla en una potente m\u00e1quina de predicci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\"Esta revelaci\u00f3n abre nuevas v\u00edas para la aplicaci\u00f3n de los LLM en la previsi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica, la planificaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica y m\u00e1s all\u00e1, desafi\u00e1ndonos a repensar c\u00f3mo interactuamos y explotamos las capacidades de estos sofisticados modelos\", concluyen.<\/p>\n

Esperemos que realicen experimentos similares cuando llegue la GPT-5.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investigadores del Departamento de Econom\u00eda de la Universidad de Baylor experimentaron con ChatGPT para probar su capacidad de predecir acontecimientos futuros. Su astuto enfoque de la predicci\u00f3n eludi\u00f3 las barreras de OpenAI y ofreci\u00f3 resultados sorprendentemente precisos. Los modelos de IA son, por naturaleza, motores predictivos. ChatGPT utiliza esta capacidad predictiva para hacer la mejor estimaci\u00f3n de la siguiente palabra que debe emitir en respuesta a tu pregunta. \u00bfPodr\u00eda ampliarse esta capacidad predictiva para predecir acontecimientos del mundo real? En el experimento descrito en su art\u00edculo, Pham Hoang Van y Scott Cunningham probaron la capacidad de ChatGPT para hacer precisamente eso. Para ello, preguntaron a los modelos ChatGPT-3.5 y ChatGPT-4 sobre acontecimientos que<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11597,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-11592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/es\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Baylor University Department of Economics researchers experimented with ChatGPT to test its ability to predict future events. 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