{"id":6035,"date":"2023-09-30T13:30:57","date_gmt":"2023-09-30T13:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=6035"},"modified":"2023-09-30T13:43:22","modified_gmt":"2023-09-30T13:43:22","slug":"ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/de\/2023\/09\/ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"KI revolutioniert die Vorhersage von Erdbeben und Nachbeben"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Das maschinelle Lernen (ML) ebnet den Weg f\u00fcr bahnbrechende Verbesserungen bei der Erdbebenvorhersage, und zwar sowohl bei Prim\u00e4rbeben als auch bei Nachbeben.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In drei k\u00fcrzlich erschienenen Ver\u00f6ffentlichungen wurden Deep-Learning-Modelle verwendet, die nach ersten Erkenntnissen die herk\u00f6mmlichen statistischen Methoden bei der Vorhersage von Erdbeben in den Schatten stellen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Obwohl diese Studien relativ spezifisch sind - in erster Linie geht es um die Vorhersage von Nachbeben nach einem gro\u00dfen seismischen Ereignis - bedeuten sie einen Sprung in der pr\u00e4diktiven Erdbebenvorhersage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Morgan Page, Seismologin beim US Geological Survey (USGS) in Pasadena, Kalifornien, zeigte sich begeistert von den Fortschritten: \"Ich bin wirklich begeistert, dass es endlich losgeht\".<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Es ist jedoch wichtig zu entmystifizieren, was Erdbebenvorhersagen beinhalten. Es geht nicht darum, den genauen Zeitpunkt oder Ort eines seismischen Ereignisses zu bestimmen. Die lange Zeit vorherrschende Vorstellung, dass man die St\u00e4rke, den Ort und die Zeit eines Bebens vorhersagen kann - etwa so, als w\u00fcrde man sagen: \"n\u00e4chsten Sonntag um 8 Uhr\". - ist nicht realistisch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mit Hilfe statistischer Analysen sind die Seismologen nun besser in der Lage, breitere Muster zu erkennen und auch m\u00f6gliche Nachbeben abzusch\u00e4tzen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Deep Learning kann mit riesigen Datens\u00e4tzen arbeiten und auf der Grundlage historischer Erdbebendaten die n\u00e4chsten Beben vorhersagen. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Allerdings war es kein einfacher Weg, denn gro\u00dfe Erdbeben sind relativ selten und die Datenlage ist d\u00fcnn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00dcber die Papiere<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Drei <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-023-02934-6\">j\u00fcngste Studien<\/a> <\/span>zeigen das Potenzial der KI bei der Vorhersage von Erdbeben auf:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Geophysiker Kelian Dascher-Cousineau und ein Team der UC Berkeley:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Entwicklung eines Modells, das an den Beben in S\u00fcdkalifornien zwischen 2008 und 2021 getestet wurde. Ihr Modell \u00fcbertraf das herk\u00f6mmliche Modell bei der Vorhersage der Anzahl und des Magnitudenbereichs der Beben innerhalb von zwei Wochen.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Statistiker Samuel Stockman von der Universit\u00e4t von Bristol<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Die Stockman-Methode zeigte beim Training mit Erdbebendaten aus Mittelitalien aus den Jahren 2016-17 eine bessere Leistung als herk\u00f6mmliche Methoden.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Physiker Yohai Bar-Sinai und ein Team der Universit\u00e4t Tel Aviv: <\/b>D<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ein weiteres neuronales Netzmodell entwickelt, das das herk\u00f6mmliche Modell \u00fcbertraf, als es mit Erdbebendaten aus drei Jahrzehnten in Japan getestet wurde. Bar-Sinai glaubt, dass dies zu einem besseren Verst\u00e4ndnis der Erdbebenmechanik f\u00fchren k\u00f6nnte.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Der USGS und \u00e4hnliche Einrichtungen werden bald neben den herk\u00f6mmlichen Modellen auch Modelle des maschinellen Lernens einsetzen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unabh\u00e4ngig von der Vorhersagegenauigkeit ist es jedoch nach wie vor von gr\u00f6\u00dfter Bedeutung, sich auf Erdbeben vorzubereiten und sicherzustellen, dass die Geb\u00e4ude den Sicherheitsnormen entsprechen und Notfallausr\u00fcstungen stets bereitstehen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Fortschritte in der k\u00fcnstlichen Intelligenz unterst\u00fctzen Umwelt- und Naturschutzstrategien, einschlie\u00dflich des Schutzes des <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/de\/2023\/09\/ai-and-machine-learning-join-the-fight-to-protect-the-amazon\/\">Amazonas-Regenwald<\/a> und Verbesserung der <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/de\/2023\/08\/researchers-harness-satellite-data-to-create-accurate-tsunami-warning-system\/\">Tsunami-Warnsysteme<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Das maschinelle Lernen (ML) ebnet den Weg f\u00fcr bahnbrechende Verbesserungen bei der Vorhersage von Erdbeben, und zwar sowohl von Prim\u00e4rbeben als auch von Nachbeben.  In drei k\u00fcrzlich erschienenen Ver\u00f6ffentlichungen wurden Modelle des maschinellen Lernens eingesetzt, die nach ersten Erkenntnissen die herk\u00f6mmlichen statistischen Methoden bei der Vorhersage von Erdbeben in den Schatten stellen.  Obwohl diese Studien relativ spezifisch sind - in erster Linie geht es um die Vorhersage von Nachbeben nach einem seismischen Gro\u00dfereignis - bedeuten sie einen Sprung in der Vorhersage von Erdbeben.  Morgan Page, eine Seismologin des US Geological Survey (USGS) in Pasadena, Kalifornien, \u00e4u\u00dferte sich begeistert \u00fcber den Fortschritt: \"Ich bin wirklich begeistert, dass dies endlich geschieht\". Es ist jedoch wichtig, zu entmystifizieren, was Erdbebenvorhersagen beinhalten.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6036,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[88],"tags":[412,306,263],"class_list":["post-6035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ethics","tag-earthquakes","tag-environment","tag-sustainability"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AI revolutionizes earthquake and aftershock forecasting | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Machine learning (ML) is beginning to pave the way for groundbreaking improvements in earthquake forecasting, including both primary shockwaves and aftershocks.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/de\/2023\/09\/ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AI revolutionizes earthquake and aftershock forecasting | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Machine learning (ML) is beginning to pave the way for groundbreaking improvements in earthquake forecasting, including both primary shockwaves and aftershocks.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/de\/2023\/09\/ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-09-30T13:30:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-30T13:43:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/shutterstock_2261440083.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"667\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sam Jeans\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@DailyAIOfficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@DailyAIOfficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Verfasst von\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sam Jeans\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Gesch\u00e4tzte Lesezeit\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2\u00a0Minuten\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dailyai.com\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dailyai.com\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sam Jeans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dailyai.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/711e81f945549438e8bbc579efdeb3c9\"},\"headline\":\"AI revolutionizes earthquake and aftershock forecasting\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-30T13:30:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-30T13:43:22+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dailyai.com\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":373,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dailyai.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dailyai.com\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/ai-revolutionizes-earthquake-and-aftershock-forecasting\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dailyai.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/shutterstock_2261440083.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Earthquakes\",\"environment\",\"Sustainability\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Ethics &amp; 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