{"id":12647,"date":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=12647"},"modified":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","slug":"gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/de\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"GPT-4 \u00fcbertrifft Finanzanalysten bei der Gewinnvorhersage"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u00f6nnte ein verallgemeinertes KI-Modell wie GPT-4 bessere Finanzvorhersagen machen als menschliche Analysten? Forscher der University of Chicago sind dieser Frage nachgegangen und kamen zu \u00fcberraschenden Ergebnissen.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Die Bef\u00fcrchtung, dass KI Arbeitspl\u00e4tze ersetzen k\u00f6nnte, bezog sich vor allem auf weniger qualifizierte T\u00e4tigkeiten. Aber m\u00fcssen Experten wie Investment- und Finanzanalysten vielleicht auch ihre Karrieren \u00fcberdenken?<\/p>\n

Das Papier<\/a> Die von den Forschern ver\u00f6ffentlichte Studie besagt, dass GPT-4 bei der Analyse der Finanzdaten eines Unternehmens und der Vorhersage seiner k\u00fcnftigen Ertr\u00e4ge deutlich besser ist als menschliche Experten.<\/p>\n

Ihr Experiment bestand darin, eine Bilanz und eine Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung in standardisierter Form an GPT-4 Turbo zu \u00fcbergeben und das Modell zu bitten, sie zu analysieren.<\/p>\n

Das Modell wurde dann gefragt, ob die wirtschaftliche Leistung des Unternehmens nachhaltig ist und ob die Ertr\u00e4ge in der folgenden Periode steigen oder sinken werden.<\/p>\n

Durch die Verwendung von Chain-of-Thought (CoT) Prompting wurde das Modell so gecoacht, dass es bei der Analyse der Daten einen Finanzanalysten nachahmte.<\/p>\n

Die Forscher wollten ausschlie\u00dflich die F\u00e4higkeit von GPT-4 testen, Finanzzahlen zu analysieren. Deshalb gaben sie ihm keine anderen Daten wie den Namen des Unternehmens, Gespr\u00e4che mit der Gesch\u00e4ftsf\u00fchrung oder andere Unternehmensinformationen.<\/p>\n

Die Forscher lie\u00dfen GPT-4 auch nicht wissen, aus welchem Jahr die Finanzdaten stammten. Dadurch wurde verhindert, dass GPT-4 anhand seiner Trainingsdaten R\u00fcckschl\u00fcsse auf das Unternehmen oder die wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen zum Zeitpunkt der Erstellung der Finanzdaten ziehen konnte.<\/p>\n

Ergebnisse<\/h2>\n

GPT-4 erreichte eine Vorhersagegenauigkeit von 60%, was deutlich \u00fcber der Genauigkeit von 53% liegt, die die menschlichen Analysten bei der gleichen Stichprobe von Unternehmenszahlen erreichten.<\/p>\n

Menschliche Analysten analysieren in der Regel die Zahlen eines Unternehmens und kombinieren diese Analyse mit ihrem Branchen- und Privatwissen \u00fcber das Unternehmen, bevor sie ihre Prognosen abgeben.<\/p>\n

Es scheint, dass GPT-4 die Menschen \u00fcbertrifft, auch wenn es den Nachteil hat, dass nur die Zahlen ohne weiteren Kontext vorliegen.<\/p>\n

Aber vielleicht ist es gerade diese sachliche, unvoreingenommene Analyse von GPT-4, die ihm einen Vorteil gegen\u00fcber Menschen verschafft, die oft von Gef\u00fchlen oder Emotionen beeinflusst sind und voreingenommene Vorhersagen treffen.<\/p>\n

Finanzanalysten verwenden h\u00e4ufig spezialisierte Modelle des maschinellen Lernens (ML), um die Zahlen zu berechnen und Vorhersagen f\u00fcr sie zu treffen. Die Forscher fanden heraus, dass GPT-4, ein verallgemeinertes Modell, gleich gut oder sogar etwas besser abschnitt als die spezialisierten ML-Modelle auf dem neuesten Stand der Technik.<\/p>\n

Die Forscher kamen zu dem Schluss, dass, obwohl sie nicht sicher sind, wie GPT-4 das macht, seine F\u00e4higkeit, menschliche Spezialisten zu \u00fcbertreffen, das \"Potenzial f\u00fcr LLMs hat, die Verarbeitung von Finanzinformationen zu demokratisieren\".<\/p>\n

Wird KI die Analysten der Wall Street ersetzen? Das k\u00f6nnte schneller passieren, als Sie denken, denn die Menschen haben keine gute Arbeit geleistet.<\/p>\n

In einer Studie aus dem Jahr 2020 wurden aktiv verwaltete Investmentfonds mit der Performance des S&P 500 Benchmark-Index verglichen.<\/p>\n

Diese Studie ergab, dass Sie, wenn Sie in den S&P 500 investiert h\u00e4tten, bessere Ergebnisse erzielt h\u00e4tten als 89% der Fondsmanager. Mit anderen Worten: Nur 11% der Finanzanalysten dieser Investmentfirmen haben den Index im Jahr 2020 geschlagen.<\/p>\n

Da GPT-4 menschliche Analysten deutlich zu \u00fcbertreffen scheint, werden Sie vielleicht bald ChatGPT fragen, ob Sie kaufen oder verkaufen sollen, und nicht mehr Ihren Fondsmanager.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00f6nnte ein verallgemeinertes KI-Modell wie GPT-4 bessere Finanzvorhersagen machen als menschliche Analysten? Forscher der University of Chicago sind dieser Frage nachgegangen und kamen zu \u00fcberraschenden Ergebnissen. Die Bef\u00fcrchtung, dass KI Arbeitspl\u00e4tze ersetzen k\u00f6nnte, bezog sich vor allem auf weniger qualifizierte Berufe, aber m\u00fcssen vielleicht auch Experten wie Investment- und Finanzanalysten ihre Karrieren \u00fcberdenken? In dem von den Forschern ver\u00f6ffentlichten Papier hei\u00dft es, dass GPT-4 bei der Analyse der Finanzdaten eines Unternehmens und der Vorhersage seiner k\u00fcnftigen Ertr\u00e4ge deutlich besser ist als menschliche Experten. In ihrem Experiment wurden eine Bilanz und eine Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung in standardisierter Form an GPT-4 Turbo und<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-12647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nGPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/de\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Could a generalized AI model like GPT-4 make better financial predictions than expert human analysts? 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