{"id":1395,"date":"2023-06-06T12:59:14","date_gmt":"2023-06-06T12:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=1395"},"modified":"2023-06-28T21:56:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T21:56:42","slug":"is-the-future-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/da\/2023\/06\/is-the-future-back\/","title":{"rendered":"\"Vi ville have flyvende biler, men i stedet fik vi 140 tegn\" - er fremtiden tilbage?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I sit indflydelsesrige essay \"What Happened to the Future?\" beklagede Peter Thiel, at samfundet havde bev\u00e6get sig v\u00e6k fra en fremtidsvision fyldt med \"flyvende biler\" og i stedet fokuserede p\u00e5 trinvise fremskridt som de \"140 tegn\" i et Twitter-opslag. Har kunstig intelligens \u00e6ndret p\u00e5 det?<\/b><\/p>\n

Thiels kommentarer blev offentliggjort i 2011, da AI stadig var en noget perifer teknologi, der prim\u00e6rt blev brugt til videnskabelige og forskningsm\u00e6ssige form\u00e5l.<\/span><\/p>\n

Siden da er AI kommet i rampelyset, og menneskeheden er begyndt at dr\u00f8mme om en ny AI-drevet fremtid, en fremtid med frygt og sp\u00e6nding - en fremtid med ubekendte. <\/span><\/p>\n

AI udfordrer Thiels kritik af teknologibranchen og giver nyt liv til b\u00e5de utopiske og dystopiske fremtidsvisioner.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00e5 er fremtiden tilbage? Hvordan ser den ud nu?<\/p>\n

Tilbage til 70'erne<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00c5ret var 1969. Den kolde krig havde n\u00e5et sit h\u00f8jdepunkt, og rumkapl\u00f8bet n\u00e6rmede sig en kritisk masse, da USA og Rusland n\u00e6rmede sig M\u00e5nen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Den 20. juli 1969, kort efter kl. 10:51 EST, blev en af historiens mest ikoniske s\u00e6tninger sendt ud til 650 millioner tv-apparater verden over: \"... et lille skridt for en mand, et k\u00e6mpespring for menneskeheden.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Fremtiden var ankommet. 1970'erne signalerede en futuristisk opv\u00e5gnen, der udl\u00f8ste publikationer som Club of Rome's <\/span>Gr\u00e6nserne for v\u00e6kst <\/span><\/i>og en r\u00e6kke v\u00e6rker af eliteforskere, bl.a. Princeton-fysikeren Gerard K. O'Neill og MIT-forskeren Eric Drexler, som har udarbejdet planer for alt fra nanoteknologi til rumkolonialisme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Fremtidens verden: Fremtidens byer (1979). Det er en \u00e6re: Retrofuturisten<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

David Valentine, professor i antropologi ved <\/span>University of Minnesota, skrev<\/span><\/a>\"1970'erne var ogs\u00e5 den periode, hvor \"fremtiden\" - dystopisk eller utopisk, fikseret af prognoser, men \u00e5ben for teknologisk manipulation - s\u00e5 ud til at have fanget l\u00e6gfolks, politikeres, beslutningstageres og prognosemageres forestillinger mest.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Fremkomsten af kunstig intelligens<\/span><\/h2>\n

AI's oprindelse g\u00e5r tilbage til 1950'erne, hvor datalogerne John McCarthy og Marvin Minsky var v\u00e6rter for <\/span>Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence (DSRPAI) i 1956<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Netop denne begivenhed blev startskuddet til begrebet \"kunstig intelligens\". 8 \u00e5r senere, i 1964, skabte en MIT-forsker, Joseph Weizenbaum, den f\u00f8rste chatbot. <\/span>ELIZA<\/span><\/a> - forl\u00f8beren for moderne sprog-AI'er som ChatGPT. I 1966 gav AI-pioneren Martin Minsky en studerende til opgave at forbinde et kamera med en computer og \"f\u00e5 den til at beskrive, hvad den ser\" - den f\u00f8rste beskrivelse af det, vi nu kalder computer vision (CV).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Eliza\"
ELIZA var designet til at udgive sig for at v\u00e6re en terapeut. Det brugte m\u00f8nstermatchning til at behandle input til output. Det var et af de f\u00f8rste programmer, der var i stand til at tage Turing-testen. Kredit: Wikipedia<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I starten blev AI stort set ignoreret af det videnskabelige samfund, bortset fra en lille gruppe forskere, der troede p\u00e5 dets potentiale. I 1970, <\/span>Minsky fortalte Life Magazine<\/span><\/a>\"Om tre til otte \u00e5r vil vi have en maskine med samme generelle intelligens som et gennemsnitligt menneske.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Som vi nu ved, var Minskys timing helt forkert. Der blev ikke investeret i kunstig intelligens, og teknologien blev i h\u00f8j grad holdt tilbage af mangel p\u00e5 computerkraft.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Denne periode med stagnerende udvikling blev kaldt \"AI-vinteren\". En af McCarthys studerende, Hans Moravec, <\/span>sagde, at<\/span><\/a> \"Computere var stadig millioner af gange for svage til at udvise intelligens.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Det var en periode med teknologisk afmagt - mennesker havde opdaget s\u00e5 meget p\u00e5 kort tid og stod tilbage med en syndflod af ideer, men ikke nok tid eller penge til at udforske dem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Vi ville have flyvende biler, i stedet fik vi 140 tegn\"<\/span><\/h2>\n

Peter Thiel, medstifter af PayPal, har ofte diskuteret dette teknologiske plateau, indkapslet i hans vidt udbredte citat: \"Vi ville have flyvende biler, men i stedet fik vi 140 tegn.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Denne dikotomi illustrerer \"fremtidens\" d\u00f8d i h\u00e6nderne p\u00e5 den digitale teknologi. Hans hovedargument er, at venturekapital begyndte at favorisere \"trinvise \u00e6ndringer\" eller endda \"falske teknologier\", som ikke havde nogen konkret eller iboende v\u00e6rdi, men som gav en masse profit p\u00e5 kort tid. Thiel og hans kolleger skrev: \"Vi mener, at skiftet v\u00e6k fra at st\u00f8tte transformerende teknologier og hen imod mere kyniske, inkrementalistiske investeringer \u00f8delagde venturekapitalen.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Selvf\u00f8lgelig var der nogle utrolige opfindelser i 80'erne og 90'erne, ikke mindst internettet. Men alligevel h\u00e6vder Thiel, at teknologien gik fra nye teknologier eller opfindelser til digitale produkter og tjenester.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Alle de bedste ingeni\u00f8rer havde for travlt med at finpudse Facebook- og Google-apps i stedet for at opfinde teknologier som flyvende biler.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thiel spurgte: \"Er der nogen rigtige teknologier tilbage? Er vi n\u00e5et til vejs ende, en slags teknologisk afslutning p\u00e5 historien? N\u00e5r hver eneste forhandler er flyttet over p\u00e5 internettet, er det s\u00e5 slut? Er den udviklede verden virkelig udviklet, punktum?\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Andre hoppede med p\u00e5 vognen og gav udtryk for samme holdning. For eksempel sagde senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) <\/span>skrev i 2019<\/span><\/a>\"M\u00e6nd landede p\u00e5 m\u00e5nen for 50 \u00e5r siden, en enorm bedrift af amerikansk kreativitet, mod og ikke mindst teknologi. De teknologiske opdagelser, der blev gjort i rumkapl\u00f8bet, drev innovation i \u00e5rtier. Men jeg spekulerer p\u00e5, hvad teknologibranchen giver USA i dag, 50 \u00e5r senere.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Thiel om kunstig intelligens<\/span><\/h2>\n

Thiels essay refererer direkte til AI: \"\u00c6gte generel kunstig intelligens repr\u00e6senterer den h\u00f8jeste form for databehandling ... maskinl\u00e6ring repr\u00e6senterer ogs\u00e5 en anden overbevisende mulighed med potentiale til at skabe alt fra mere intelligente spil-AI'er til Watson. Selv om vi har computerkraften til at underst\u00f8tte mange versioner af AI, er omr\u00e5det stadig relativt d\u00e5rligt finansieret.\"<\/span><\/p>\n

I 2011, da kommentarerne blev offentliggjort, l\u00e5 AI-investeringerne p\u00e5 omkring $12nb, <\/span>if\u00f8lge Statista<\/span><\/a>. I 2021 l\u00e5 den p\u00e5 n\u00e6sten $100 milliarder, og nogle <\/span>Analytikere mener, at markedet vil vokse til det tyvedobbelte inden 2030.<\/span><\/a>og n\u00e5ede frem til $2tn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Som Thiel bem\u00e6rker, er regnekraften der, og nu er pengene der ogs\u00e5.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Beviser AI, at Thiel tager fejl, n\u00e5r han siger: \"Er der nogen rigtige teknologier tilbage? Er vi n\u00e5et til vejs ende, en slags teknologisk afslutning p\u00e5 historien?\"<\/span><\/p>\n

...Er fremtiden tilbage?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Vi er g\u00e5et ind i en begyndende periode med teknologisk innovation - vi ved simpelthen ikke, i hvor h\u00f8j grad AI vil \u00e6ndre vores verden.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI er unik, fordi den g\u00e5r p\u00e5 tv\u00e6rs af de digitale teknologier, Thiel kritiserer, og de nye opfindelser, han opfordrer til. Fra exoskeletter, der g\u00f8re det lettere at g\u00e5 for lammede personer<\/a> til <\/span>robotter, der skaber og udstiller deres egen kunst<\/span><\/a>AI er en digital teknologi, der kan indbygges i stort set alt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Ai-Da\"
Ai-Da<\/a> er en android, der bruger AI til at skabe sin egen kunst, som er blevet udstillet i form af b\u00e5de 2D-malerier og -tegninger og 3D-skulpturer. Kredit: Wikimedia Commons<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ud over AI's utroligt vidtr\u00e6kkende talenter har den en vis allestedsn\u00e6rv\u00e6relse, der adskiller den fra andre teknologier. AI lever i webbrowsere, den lever i telefoner, den lever i robotter, den lever i k\u00f8ret\u00f8jer. Og den bliver mere og mere intelligent for hver dag, der g\u00e5r, og nogle mener, at \"superintelligent\" AI eller kunstig generel intelligens (AGI)<\/a>der overg\u00e5r den menneskelige kognition, er kun f\u00e5 \u00e5r v\u00e6k.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Det rejser et vigtigt sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l. Lige nu beslutter mennesker, hvilke teknologier der skal udvikles med AI, men hvad sker der, hvis den bliver for intelligent eller autonom nok til at trodse os? Hvad hvis den l\u00e6rer at fjerne sig selv fra teknologier, tilpasse sig forskellige forhold eller endda reproducere sig selv?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I de seneste m\u00e5neder har AI-ledere, teknologer, offentlige personer og politikere udtalt sig om deres holdning til AI, og man kan roligt sige, at det er de dystopiske fort\u00e6llinger, der v\u00e6kker st\u00f8rst opsigt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Blandt kritikerne er to af AI's 'gudf\u00e6dre', Yoshua Bengio og Geoffrey Hinton, som kom med skarpe advarsler om AI-risici som f.eks. v\u00e5benbrug og tab af kontrol. Den anden, Yann LeCun, mener, at de er st\u00e6rkt overdrevne.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For at intensivere debatten har <\/span>Center for AI-sikkerhed<\/span><\/a> udgav for nylig en <\/span>erkl\u00e6ring om AI-risiko<\/span><\/a>, underskrevet af 350 teknologiledere, herunder CEO'erne for Google DeepMind, OpenAI og Anthropic, samt Bill Gates, adskillige akademikere og anerkendte forskere, politikere og offentlige personer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fox, CNN, CBS, BBC og andre mainstream-nyhedsnetv\u00e6rk har skubbet AI frem i den offentlige debat og sat gang i vores forestillinger om et futuristisk scenarie, hvor maskinerne tager over.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Faktisk lever denne forestillede verden allerede inden i os i form af I, Robot, Matrix, A.I. Artificial Intelligence, 2001: A Space Odyssey, Metropolis, Matrix, Terminator, Ex Machina, WALL-E og andre futuristiske AI-film, der har \u00e9n ting til f\u00e6lles: Det ender ikke godt for menneskeheden.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI's fordele og ulemper balancerer p\u00e5 en knivs\u00e6g<\/span><\/h2>\n

Vi h\u00f8rer meget om AI's risici, m\u00e5ske fordi det er de mest opsigtsv\u00e6kkende historier.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI's enorme potentiale skal udnyttes og fokuseres p\u00e5 n\u00f8gleapplikationer, fra opbremsning af klimaforandringer til sygdomsforebyggelse og medicinsk rehabilitering, landbrugsoptimering og transport.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Der er fantastiske eksempler p\u00e5, at disse teknologier hj\u00e6lper mennesker lige nu, fra<\/span>\u00a0gr\u00e6srodsprojekter i Afrika med fokus p\u00e5 at udrydde landbrugssygdomme til at give billige MR-scanninger<\/a> og opdage nye l\u00e6gemidler, der tackle antibiotikaresistente bakterier<\/a>. AI kan skabe fremtider for mennesker, hvor de ikke fandtes f\u00f8r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AI er stadig et foster - vi m\u00e5 sikre, at den vokser til noget, der skaber i stedet for at \u00f8del\u00e6gge. Mens vi stadig har tid, skal menneskeheden styre AI til gavn for menneskeheden.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vi lever m\u00e5ske i fremtiden igen, og den er stadig i vores h\u00e6nder - i hvert fald indtil videre. <\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I sit indflydelsesrige essay \"What Happened to the Future?\" beklagede Peter Thiel, at samfundet havde bev\u00e6get sig v\u00e6k fra en fremtidsvision fyldt med \"flyvende biler\" og i stedet fokuserede p\u00e5 trinvise fremskridt som de \"140 tegn\" i et Twitter-opslag. Har kunstig intelligens \u00e6ndret p\u00e5 det? Thiels kommentarer blev offentliggjort i 2011, da AI stadig var en noget marginal teknologi, der prim\u00e6rt blev brugt til videnskabelige og forskningsm\u00e6ssige form\u00e5l. Siden da er AI kommet i rampelyset, og menneskeheden er begyndt at dr\u00f8mme om en ny AI-drevet fremtid, en fremtid med frygt og sp\u00e6nding - en fremtid med ubekendte. AI udfordrer Thiels kritik af<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1501,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[87],"tags":[119,124,105,117,93],"class_list":["post-1395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinions","tag-big-tech","tag-futurism","tag-machine-learning","tag-mit","tag-openai"],"yoast_head":"\n"We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters\u201d \u2013 is the future back? | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Concepts of the future have fluctuated hugely over time, but how does AI change that? 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