{"id":12647,"date":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=12647"},"modified":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T12:17:46","slug":"gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/da\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"GPT-4 er bedre end finansanalytikere til at forudsige indtjening"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kan en generaliseret AI-model som GPT-4 komme med bedre \u00f8konomiske forudsigelser end menneskelige ekspertanalytikere? Forskere fra University of Chicago unders\u00f8gte dette sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l og kom frem til overraskende resultater.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Frygten for, at AI skal erstatte job, har hovedsageligt drejet sig om mindre kvalificerede jobfunktioner, men m\u00e5ske skal eksperter som investerings- og finansanalytikere ogs\u00e5 genoverveje deres karrierer?<\/p>\n

Avisen<\/a> Forskerne har offentliggjort, at GPT-4 er betydeligt bedre end menneskelige eksperter til at analysere en virksomheds finansielle data og forudsige dens fremtidige indtjening.<\/p>\n

Deres eksperiment gik ud p\u00e5 at sende en balance og en resultatopg\u00f8relse i en standardiseret form til GPT-4 Turbo og bede modellen om at analysere dem.<\/p>\n

Modellen blev derefter spurgt, om virksomhedens \u00f8konomiske resultater var b\u00e6redygtige, og om dens indtjening ville vokse eller falde i den f\u00f8lgende periode.<\/p>\n

Ved at bruge Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting coachede de modellen til at efterligne en finansanalytiker i den m\u00e5de, den analyserede dataene p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Forskerne \u00f8nskede udelukkende at teste GPT-4's evne til at analysere finansielle tal, s\u00e5 de gav den ikke andre data som virksomhedens navn, ledelsesdiskussioner eller andre virksomhedsoplysninger.<\/p>\n

Forskerne lod heller ikke GPT-4 vide, hvilket \u00e5r de finansielle data stammede fra. Disse bestr\u00e6belser forhindrede GPT-4 i at bruge sine tr\u00e6ningsdata til at drage konklusioner om virksomheden eller de \u00f8konomiske forhold, da regnskaberne blev udarbejdet.<\/p>\n

Resultater<\/h2>\n

GPT-4 opn\u00e5ede en forudsigelsesn\u00f8jagtighed p\u00e5 60%, hvilket var betydeligt bedre end den n\u00f8jagtighed p\u00e5 53%, som de menneskelige analytikere opn\u00e5ede med det samme udvalg af virksomhedstal.<\/p>\n

Menneskelige analytikere analyserer normalt en virksomheds tal og kombinerer denne analyse med deres branche og private viden om virksomheden, f\u00f8r de udsender deres prognoser.<\/p>\n

Det ser ud til, at GPT-4 klarede sig bedre end menneskerne, selv med den ulempe, at vi kun havde tallene uden anden kontekst.<\/p>\n

Men det er m\u00e5ske denne saglige, objektive analyse fra GPT-4, der giver den en fordel i forhold til mennesker, som ofte p\u00e5virkes af f\u00f8lelser og kommer med forudindtagede forudsigelser.<\/p>\n

Finansanalytikere bruger ofte specialiserede maskinl\u00e6ringsmodeller (ML) til at regne p\u00e5 tallene og komme med forudsigelser for dem. Forskerne fandt ud af, at GPT-4, en generaliseret model, klarede sig p\u00e5 niveau med eller lidt bedre end de avancerede specialiserede ML-modeller.<\/p>\n

Forskerne konkluderede, at selv om de ikke er sikre p\u00e5, hvordan GPT-4 g\u00f8r det, har dens evne til at udkonkurrere menneskelige specialister \"potentialet til, at LLM'er kan demokratisere behandlingen af finansiel information.\"<\/p>\n

Vil AI erstatte Wall Street-analytikere? Det kan ske hurtigere, end du tror, for mennesker har ikke gjort et godt stykke arbejde.<\/p>\n

En unders\u00f8gelse fra 2020 sammenlignede aktivt forvaltede investeringsfonde med udviklingen i S&P 500-benchmarkindekset.<\/p>\n

Unders\u00f8gelsen viste, at hvis du investerede i S&P 500, ville du have opn\u00e5et bedre resultater end 89% af fondsforvalterne. Med andre ord var det kun 11% af finansanalytikerne i disse investeringsfirmaer, der slog indekset i 2020.<\/p>\n

Da GPT-4 ser ud til at klare sig betydeligt bedre end menneskelige analytikere, kan du snart sp\u00f8rge ChatGPT, om du skal k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge, i stedet for din fondsforvalter.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kan en generaliseret AI-model som GPT-4 komme med bedre \u00f8konomiske forudsigelser end menneskelige ekspertanalytikere? Forskere fra University of Chicago unders\u00f8gte dette sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l og kom frem til overraskende resultater. Frygten for, at AI skal erstatte job, har hovedsageligt drejet sig om mindre kvalificerede jobfunktioner, men m\u00e5ske skal eksperter som investerings- og finansanalytikere ogs\u00e5 genoverveje deres karrierer? I den artikel, forskerne offentliggjorde, st\u00e5r der, at GPT-4 er betydeligt bedre end menneskelige eksperter til at analysere en virksomheds finansielle data og forudsige dens fremtidige indtjening. Deres eksperiment gik ud p\u00e5 at sende en balance og en resultatopg\u00f8relse i en standardiseret form til GPT-4 Turbo og<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-12647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nGPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/da\/2024\/05\/gpt-4-outperforms-financial-analysts-in-predicting-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GPT-4 outperforms financial analysts in predicting earnings | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Could a generalized AI model like GPT-4 make better financial predictions than expert human analysts? 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