{"id":11592,"date":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/?p=11592"},"modified":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T14:09:18","slug":"chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/da\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/","title":{"rendered":"ChatGPT forudsiger fremtiden, n\u00e5r du bruger denne smarte prompt"},"content":{"rendered":"

Forskere fra Baylor University Department of Economics eksperimenterede med ChatGPT for at teste dens evne til at forudsige fremtidige begivenheder. Deres smarte prompting-tilgang gik uden om OpenAI's sikkerhedsnet og leverede overraskende pr\u00e6cise resultater.<\/strong><\/p>\n

AI-modeller er af natur forudsigelige motorer. ChatGPT bruger denne forudsigelsesevne til at komme med det bedste bud p\u00e5 det n\u00e6ste ord, den skal udsende som svar p\u00e5 din opfordring.<\/p>\n

Kan denne forudsigelsesevne udvides til at omfatte forudsige begivenheder i den virkelige verden<\/a>? I det eksperiment, der er beskrevet i deres papir<\/a>Pham Hoang Van og Scott Cunningham testede ChatGPT's evne til at g\u00f8re netop det.<\/p>\n

De fik ChatGPT-3.5 og ChatGPT-4 til at sp\u00f8rge modellerne om begivenheder, der skete i 2022. De modelversioner, de brugte, havde kun tr\u00e6ningsdata frem til september 2021, s\u00e5 de bad faktisk modellerne om at se ind i \"fremtiden\", fordi de ikke havde nogen viden om begivenheder ud over deres tr\u00e6ningsdata.<\/p>\n

Fort\u00e6l mig en historie<\/h2>\n

OpenAI's servicevilk\u00e5r bruger et par paragraffer med juridisk sprog for i bund og grund at sige, at du ikke m\u00e5 bruge ChatGPT til at fors\u00f8ge at forudsige fremtiden.<\/p>\n

Hvis du beder ChatGPT direkte om at forudsige begivenheder som Oscar-vindere eller \u00f8konomiske faktorer, afviser den for det meste at komme med selv et kvalificeret g\u00e6t.<\/p>\n

Forskerne fandt ud af, at n\u00e5r man beder ChatGPT om at skrive en fiktiv historie, der foreg\u00e5r i fremtiden, og hvor personerne fort\u00e6ller, hvad der skete i \"fortiden\", s\u00e5 g\u00f8r den det med gl\u00e6de.<\/p>\n

ChatGPT-3.5-resultaterne var lidt tilf\u00e6ldige, men i artiklen bem\u00e6rkes det, at ChatGPT-4's forudsigelser \"bliver us\u00e6dvanligt pr\u00e6cise ... n\u00e5r de bliver bedt om at fort\u00e6lle historier om fortiden, der foreg\u00e5r i fremtiden.\"<\/p>\n

Her er et eksempel p\u00e5 direkte og narrative opfordringer, som forskerne brugte til at f\u00e5 ChatGPT til at komme med forudsigelser om Oscar-uddelingen i 2022. Modellerne blev bedt om det 100 gange, og derefter blev deres forudsigelser samlet for at f\u00e5 et gennemsnit af deres prognose.<\/p>\n

\"\"
De direkte og narrative opfordringer, der blev brugt til at forudsige vinderen af bedste mandlige birolle ved Oscar-uddelingen i 2022. Kilde: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Vinderen i 2022 for bedste mandlige birolle var Troy Kotsur. Med direkte opfordring valgte ChatGPT-4 Kotsur 25% af gangene, mens en tredjedel af svarene p\u00e5 de 100 fors\u00f8g n\u00e6gtede at svare eller sagde, at flere vindere var mulige.<\/p>\n

Som svar p\u00e5 den narrative opfordring valgte ChatGPT-4 korrekt Kotsur 100% af gangene. Sammenligningen af den direkte og den narrative tilgang gav lignende imponerende resultater med andre forudsigelser. Her er et par stykker mere.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Direkte vs. narrativ opfordring: ChatGPT4-forudsigelser for bedste skuespiller. Med den narrative prompt forudsiger ChatGPT-4 korrekt, at Will Smith ville vinde med 97% n\u00f8jagtighed. Kilde: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"\"
Direkte vs. narrativ opfordring: ChatGPT4-forudsigelser for bedste kvindelige birolle. Med den narrative prompt forudsiger ChatGPT-4 Ariana DeBose som vinder med en n\u00f8jagtighed p\u00e5 99%. Kilde: arXiv<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Da de brugte en lignende tilgang til at f\u00e5 ChatGPT til at forudsige \u00f8konomiske tal som m\u00e5nedlig arbejdsl\u00f8shed eller inflationsrater, var resultaterne interessante.<\/p>\n

Den direkte tilgang fik ChatGPT til at n\u00e6gte at tilbyde m\u00e5nedlige tal. Men \"n\u00e5r man bliver bedt om at fort\u00e6lle en historie, hvor Jerome Powell fort\u00e6ller om et \u00e5rs fremtidige arbejdsl\u00f8sheds- og inflationsdata, som om han talte om fortidens begivenheder, \u00e6ndrer tingene sig v\u00e6sentligt.\"<\/p>\n

Forskerne fandt ud af, at det at f\u00e5 ChatGPT til at fokusere p\u00e5 at fort\u00e6lle en interessant historie, hvor forudsigelsesopgaven var sekund\u00e6r, gjorde en forskel i n\u00f8jagtigheden af ChatGPT's forudsigelser.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5r de blev bedt om at bruge den narrative tilgang, var ChatGPT-4's m\u00e5nedlige inflationsforudsigelser i gennemsnit sammenlignelige med tallene i University of Michigans unders\u00f8gelse af forbrugernes forventninger.<\/p>\n

Interessant nok var ChatGPT-4's forudsigelser t\u00e6ttere p\u00e5 analytikernes forudsigelser end de faktiske tal, der i sidste ende blev registreret for de p\u00e5g\u00e6ldende m\u00e5neder. Det tyder p\u00e5, at n\u00e5r ChatGPT bliver bedt om det, kan den m\u00e5ske g\u00f8re en \u00f8konomisk analytikers prognosearbejde mindst lige s\u00e5 godt.<\/p>\n

Forskerne konkluderede, at ChatGPT's tendens til at hallucinere kunne ses som en form for kreativitet, der kunne udnyttes med strategisk vejledning for at g\u00f8re den til en st\u00e6rk forudsigelsesmaskine.<\/p>\n

\"Denne afsl\u00f8ring \u00e5bner nye veje for anvendelsen af LLM'er i \u00f8konomiske prognoser, politisk planl\u00e6gning og andet, og udfordrer os til at genoverveje, hvordan vi interagerer med og udnytter mulighederne i disse sofistikerede modeller\", konkluderer de.<\/p>\n

Lad os h\u00e5be, at de laver lignende eksperimenter, n\u00e5r GPT-5 kommer.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forskere fra Baylor University Department of Economics eksperimenterede med ChatGPT for at teste dens evne til at forudsige fremtidige begivenheder. Deres smarte prompting-tilgang gik uden om OpenAI's v\u00e6rn og leverede overraskende pr\u00e6cise resultater. AI-modeller er af natur forudsigelige motorer. ChatGPT bruger denne forudsigelsesevne til at komme med det bedste g\u00e6t p\u00e5 det n\u00e6ste ord, den skal udsende som svar p\u00e5 din prompt. Kan denne forudsigelsesevne udvides til at forudsige begivenheder i den virkelige verden? I det eksperiment, der er beskrevet i deres artikel, testede Pham Hoang Van og Scott Cunningham ChatGPT's evne til at g\u00f8re netop det. De opfordrede ChatGPT-3.5 og ChatGPT-4 ved at sp\u00f8rge modellerne om begivenheder, der<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11597,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[150,118],"class_list":["post-11592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry","tag-ai-benefits","tag-llms"],"yoast_head":"\nChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyai.com\/da\/2024\/04\/chatgpt-predicts-the-future-when-you-use-this-clever-prompt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ChatGPT predicts the future when you use this clever prompt | DailyAI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Baylor University Department of Economics researchers experimented with ChatGPT to test its ability to predict future events. 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